Future Shock Blog

Brian Dozier/SS Twins - will he stick at short? Is he good enough to figure as an "average" MLB shortstop? Any tools grade over a 50 now or projecting in the future?

What is Drew Hutchison's ceiling? His debut last night in AA was impressive (5IP 2H 0R 2BB 7K) and he seems to be climbing the ladder in the Toronto organization quickly.

What should we think about the disappointing season that Matt Lipka has had?

Not a question about a specific procspect here but -- are there any college coaches/programs that actually do a good job in minimizing the abuse heaped upon their pitchers?

Derek Norris is still doing the power and patience thing but his appalling lack of contact (.199 BA as of this morning) seems like a big red flag. Are there positive reports or is his stock on the way down?

What is the range of scouting reports you're getting on Oscar Taveras' power ceiling? Is it possible he just winds up a 'tweener: unable to play CF, but not enough power for RF?

I'm curious about what separates Jose Iglesias from other glove only shortstops like Freddy Galvis and Gustavo Nunez. More projection left in his bat? Is he much better defensively than the other guys? It just seems like he is much more highly touted than players with similar skills sets and I wantd you thoughts on it. Thanks

we need a nickname for Brett Lawrie any thoughts Thanks Jason or Kevin

Russ Canzler of the Rays? I remember last year Dan Johnson came up late and contributed some before being let go this year. Is Canzler the same kind of guy, or does he have a chance at sticking around?

What's the percentage breakdown of scouts, GMs, etc. who might be described as scared or concerned by Bauer's workload and conditioning routine vs. those who figure, hey, it works for him?

Any chance Tom Milone's stuff translates into a back of the rotation starter, or is he purely a 4A guy?

Carlos Martinez from St. Louis. What's his ETA (I know it's a while from now), and projected role (ace, 1A to Miller, #2, #3?)

Trevor May - better prospect than his former teammate, Cosart?

Travis Snider (not sure if he qualifies as a prospect still) - what are your opinions on his "failure" in the big leagues? I say "failure" because he's still only 23

What are you hearing about Vicente Campos?

Trey McNutt - what have we learned in 2011?

Frankie De La Cruz: does the current version of his fastball have enough movement to enable some success in the majors (assuming he can limit the walks)? If so, are the secondary pitches good enough to project him as a starter?

Robbie Ray and A.J. Cole have both been good at low A this season as 19-year-olds. Consensus seems to be that Cole is the better prospect, but is his ceiling that much higher than Ray's?

What's your feelings about Simon Castro's struggles? Still a couple of years to let him figure things out? On another note, any word on Jenrry Mejia's road to recovery? Thanks KG.

Any reports on your A's prospect, Renato nunez?

Thoughts on Jake Marisnick in the Jays system? - I saw Keith Law say he prefers him to Gose.. agree?

Kevin,
I have noticed a huge lack of White Sox prospects in your update. I'm not here to slam you at all...as the best prospects should be covered. My question is how bad is it?

profar or starlin castro long term? assume castro stays at SS (and that he can keep his mind on the game for more than an at-bat at a time)

What do you consider Manny Banuelos' ceiling to be? solid #2? What range do you think he, G Cole and Rendon end up in your top 100? Thanks

Yorman Rodriguez - Are there any signs that Mr. Tools is getting any closer to controlling real skills?

Who do you like better: Oswaldo Arcia or Eddie Rosario? Do either have a shot at your Top 100 (or Top 50)?

As a Cards fan, if Martinez ended up a closer, that would be about the most disappointing thing possible after hearing all the hype surrounding him. If he could be an inconsistent mid-rotation guy with number 1 stuff and poor command/not a lot of innings, I would much rather have that than a reliever. If I'm the Cards, I start him until it is absolutely apparent he cannot start in any capacity. Going the Feliz/Chapman route would be a big mistake.

Xander B project as being able to stay at SS? Showing this much power at this age, makes me wonder if he is destined to 'fill out' to the point where SS becomes an issue.

How does Eddie Rosario compare to Oswaldo Arcia ala last season? How does he grade out defensively?
Thanks! (0.9 ers are better people)

Does Freddy Galvis have a shot at the starting SS job next year if Rollins isn't resigned?

How many of the teams who passed on Rendon are kicking themselves in five years?

If the rumors that the Astros wanted Wilin Rosario as part of a Wandy Rodriguez package from the Rockies are true, then whither Jason Castro?

What's the new ceiling on Wilin Rosario with his disappointing season this year in AA?

What the heck has happened to Brody Colvin? Another awful outing last week (5 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K) - 5.02 ERA overall, only 70 K in 104.1 IP.

Hechavarria reportedly made a mechanical adjustment with AAA hitting coach Chad Mottola, and has done well so far at that level (small sample size alert). Still a long shot to make it as a full-time SS, or is there still hope that he can hit enough to make the grade?

In your network for obtaining input/feedback on prospects, are we talking 25 to 50, 50 to 75, 75 to 100 or over 100? How many do you talk to each week? What is the split on how much you get versus how much you give in a standard conversation, 75% get/25% give?

Wily Peralta: Has he climbed the ranks high enough to be in discussion for a top 50 prospect? Ceiling of a #2 SP?

Is Daniel Mateo anything to get excited about? I know nothing about his glove....any chance he can stick at SS?

Is Dominic Brown the starter in RF next year for the Phillies?

I've noticed Zack DeVoss in the updates a few times recently. Will his lack of power kill the on-base percentage as he climbs or does he develop enough to be a useful player and take advantage of the plate discipline?

Jarrod Parker's numbers look pretty good this year (mostly AA I believe?). What are the chances he makes the rotation next year?

Out of curiousity, how many players in the minor leagues have a 20 tool on the 20-80 scouting scale? I know certain players have 80 tools (Harper's power, Billy Hamilton's speed, Anthony Gose's arm) but how common is it for a prospect to have a 20 tool? I'd assume it can occur for really raw talent for their present tools, but rarely for anyone's projected tools.

Thanks for doing this Kevin.

Your thoughts on Anthony Rizzo? I read somewhere that he doesn't have the bat speed for a good fastball in the majors.

What kind of ceiling/reasonable future can we expect from Familia?

Can you hit rewind and remind us all of John Mayberry's prospect status from past years?

Kevin: What do you think of the Blue Jays' recent pitching promotions, specifically Syndengaard, Nicolino, Hutchison? What are their ETAs / are they being rushed or right on track?

What is your gut instinct on the Cardinals 3B situation going forward? Given the choice between Carpenter and Cox, who do you think gives them the most value?

Is there an obvious ranking/gradation of the following four guys, who share nothing in common other than (a) being minor league pitchers and (b) being on one of my keeper teams: AJ Cole, Keyvius Sampson, Allen Webster, Brody Colvin?

How would you rank the guys starring at low levels this year? Eddie Rosario, Taylor Lindsey, Rymer Liriano? I assume they are all borderline (maybe just miss) top-100 guys?

Couple of Royals questions. What's your current opinion of the prospects for Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer, given the tough seasons they've had? And on Bubba Starling - supposedly he can throw 95 mph or something, if that's not just a Paul Bunyan tale. If he can (do you know if he can?), do you think that mitigates the risk that his hit tool might not develop, since they could possibly make him a pitcher?

What can Pirates fans expect out of Pedro Alvarez? I don't know that I would call him a bust at this point, but I think everyone thought he'd be producing at a higher level by now. What can the Pirates do to get him back on track? Thanks

This is a great thread. I'm sure you can't keep answering everything, but appreciate all the answers so far! Hopefully non-Kevins will keep up the discussion even after Kevin moves on to, you know, live his life.

What are we hearing on Dickie Joe Thon Jr of the Jays? Is he a SS in the end, or more of a 2B/3B type? He's walking lots, striking out more and a few XBHs. Seems like a mixed bag. Do scouts see a big future?

is Wilmer Flores still a prospect?

What is Vincent Catricala's power projection like?

What's the story on Matt Adams -1b Cardinals? ETA? What to expect? Was that a miss on the top 11 list or is he Crash Davis?

Keith Law recently said he says Lance McCullers as a future reliever and I couldn't tell if he was joking. What do you think of McCullers?

Where do you think Trevor Bauer would rank right now if he had been eligible for your midseason top 50 list? Would Top 15 be a stretch?

Thank you for the chat: Any word on Juan Urbina this year? He's giving up an awful lot of HR's so far.

Kevin: in honor of hurricane Irene can you identify a disappointing Blue Jay prospect? Like the hurricane I will sit back and watch the fall-out from my couch.

Kevin, there is a Baseball HQ saying that once a player has shown a skill, he owns it. Does that apply at all to prospects? Can a guy hit for average in the low minors, struggle in the high minors and hit for average in the majors.

The example I would give is Derek Norris who hit for .286 in Low A but is now struggling at higher levels.

Is it simply that he is now facing better quality breaking balls and will never hit for a good average or is it something some guys can correct with the right adjustments?

Who has the best chance of being a star major leaguer: Starling Marte, Nolan Arenado, Guillermo Pimentel or Jacob Marisnick?

Why has Lorenzo Cain been left in Omaha all year and what is your take on him?

What's Wes Timmons' glove like at 2B and 3B? Is he a viable major league bench bat, or does he simply not have enough power?

Thanks.

Have you had a chance to see Matt West yet? He is still in his first year pitching so pretty far away from the big leagues, but he is putting Kimbrel-esque K numbers in A ball. What kind of promotion path should he be on?

Do the Mets have any closer candidates on their farm?

Prospecting for next year..could you name a couple of players that haven't been called up yet this year that you think will have a starting major league position next year...thank you

Kevin...

Your thoughts on the Major League arrival time of the following guys:

Travis D'Arnaud
Tyler Skaggs
Tim Beckham

Thanks for your time.

Has Brett Eibner's solid hitting lately and his secondary skills mitigated his horrendous offensive start, or are there legitimate worries about his hit tool?

Looking at the stats, it seems to me that Chance Ruffin and Charlie Furbush are just as good as Doug Fister = decent 4th starter types. What does the scouting community think - and am I looking at the stats wrongly to begin with?

Who do you project (if anyone) winning the Giants middle infield jobs long-term? Emmanuel Burris seems yet another topped-out placeholder, we're all hoping Brandon Crawford will eventually be able to hit ML pitching, Conor Gillaspie seems to be stalled, and Ehire Adrianza is tbd. Is there realistic hope within the organization for the middle infield (conveniently ignoring the Sabean/Bochy proven vet syndrome)?

Rank these guys in terms of highest ceiling: Justin Nicolino, Wily Peralta, Zach Cozart, Rymer Liriano.

Where would you put Marisnick and D'arnaud in your prospects rankings.. are we talking top 25, 50, 100?

Thoughts on Raul Alcantara of the Red Sox - do the scouts reports back up the strong GCL numbers?

Any word on Ynoa's progress?

What do you see as the best case, and most likely case, scenario for Jo. Villar? Thanks.

Can you rank these pitching prospects: Peacock, Wheeler, Peralta, Hutchison, Eovaldi and Lee

Is Wilin Rosario a legit prospect, top 100? .282 obp in Tulsa?!?!?

Michael Ynoa, any updates on his recovery, and since he is so young could you see him jump up and be a top prospect with one healthy season?

Is Derek McCallum ever going to be the answer at second base for the Twins? I've been rooting for him ever since he graduated from the U of M, but it doesn't look like he'll fufill his potential.

Vince Belnome. Please tell me something regarding his profile, though I know he's out now. He did nothing but hit at every level including at West Virginia and I can't find anything on him.

Since you get to a few Kane County Cougars games every year, I was wondering if you have seen a Jason Adam start. Comments on his progress?

How concerning are Miguel Sano's strikeouts (69 in 60 games?)

pick one of: Cole, Purke, Bundy, Bauer if you had to draft one next year and one of Lindor, Rendon, Springer, Starling for hitters. And could realistically use any of those hitters, though I do have Profar and Asdrubel Cabrera (don't mind stockpiling multiple options at premium positions).

How do we view Nick Franklin's year? Weird injuries or exposure of some real weaknesses?

Are you still as high as you were on Segura at the beginning of the year? Also how much do you think the injuries push back his ETA?

Armchair psychologist gimmick:

Punk Music, Pop Music, Classical Music....what prospect(s) come to mind for each of these genres?

Who would you rather have: Cowart, Cuthbert or Arenado in 2014?

How many of Atlanta's seemingly endless parade of pitching prospects end up on the opening day roster of 2012? Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino? All of the above?

Where do you come down on Betances as an individual and then in comparison to Banuelos' future?

How good is Addison Reed?

Was the Herculean performance from Oscar Hernandez this year in the VSL anything to truly get excited about?

Can Ryan Westmoreland get an honorary spot in the Top 101 after hitting live pitching this year?

Adam Duvall was putting up good numbers at Augusta before he got injured, but he was 22 for most of the year and an 11th round pick. Is that just a case of a guy too old for his league, or does he have some real skills that somehow went unnoticed?

What has happened to Kyle Drabek and do you see him getting back his mojo?

Who has more upside/who do you like more: Paxton/ Parker

Lucas Duda seems to be taking good advantage of his playing time lately. Can he be a reasonable starter at LF/1B for a few years, or is he just enjoying a hot month?

Thank you KG, this is awesome.

Is Reymond Fuentes the long term answer in CF for SD? Seems to have hit a wall lately.

Also, is Tyler Matzek seen as a typical lefty prospect (will take a long time to develop), a lost cause, or something else now?

Thanks KG!

This is awesome KG.

1) How many "Panik in the Disco" headlines do you think would result from the Giants SS of the future making it to the big leagues? And do you think he's shown what's expected as a draftee (ie, beating up on a short-season league) or has he opened some eyes?

2) The Giants farm - At this point, its gotta be bottom five, right? No Belt, No Wheeler - I see Gary Brown, Francisco Pegeuro, Heath Hembree and ...

Thanks Kevin, this kind of thing is always appreciated. Other than high risk, what kind of prospect is Niko Goodrum?

KG's not going to do my fantasy ranking for me, but what do you guys think? Need to pick two of:

Rymer Liriano, Eddie Rosario, Brandon Jacobs. Could also consider Dickie Joe Thon, Matt Szczur, Jorge Alfaro, Elier Hernandez, Ronald Guzman.

Opinions?

Great idea. You talk about the Jays plenty, so my question is more philosophical. Is there an organization out there (or a Farm Director) who has implemented a philosophy that you would fully support? Would answering this type of question burn bridges for you?

Is Devin Mesoraco's arrival in Cincinnati just a matter of time, or are they thinking of sticking with Hanigan?

I'm guessing this is about toast, but I'll give it a whirl anyway: Rosell Herrera. I've watched him play about a dozen times this summer and he really seems impressive (and not in the 'college kid crushing the Pioneer League' way). What's the scuttlebutt on Rosell?

Zach Lee, inconsistent strikeout numbers... why?
Thanks

How high of an upside does Tyler Pastornicky have? what r his shots of being the braves starting SS next year?

What's the story with Chris Carter of the A's, please? Oakland seems to want to do anything BUT give him a legitimate shot at a starting position. Thanks!

Saw a bunch of NY-Penn games this week. Was wondering about your feelings on some players...1. Batavia's David Medina and Cesar Valera. 2. Williamsport's Perci Garvin and Kyrell Hudson. These were some of the players who really intrigued me.

Do the White Sox not believe in Viciedo, or do they just not think he's ready, whether it be because of glove or patience at the plate? I'm surprised that he hasn't been up yet and that they're putting in waiver claims on guys like Kubel instead of giving this kid a look to at least get his bat in the lineup.

The GCL Orioles have a team ERA below 2.00. What do you think of Jaime Esquival? Cameron Coffey? Others on that starting staff...

Where does Tim Wheeler likely rate on Top 101 list? Will he hold down a starting job in Col outfield in the next year or two?

Kevin,

F. Lindor, does he have potentially a better glove at SS than Asdrubal Cabrera?

Thoughts on Will Middlebrooks' ceiling? The tools seem to be turning into production, but he still needs to take a few more walks. Plus there seems to be no spot for him in the bigs unless Youk is moved off 3B.

By the way, I have seen Adam start twice here in Kane County. I agree - the velo was not impressive and the command needs some major work. My impression on Eibner was he could not turn on the inside fastball - telling me his swing is still very long. He has an impressive glove in CF though.

what's the future hold for Ruben Sierra, Jr?

Kevin,

Where is the NL West Draft Review for 2011? Can't find it anywhere. Thanks!

A's Jose Macias, RHP, Low A Burlington: 6IP, 1H, 0BB, 6K, 0ER last night. Just 1 hit in last 3 starts.

Past six starts: 36IP, 8H (!), 7BB, 29K, 6ER - 1.5 ERA.

Thank you, Kevin. This was a true tour de force performance. I mean, seriously........EPIC.

What's the word on Grant Green's defense in CF?