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June 27, 2011 Future ShockNL Central Draft Wrap
Chicago Cubs Who They are: It was a bit surprising to see Baez go this high, but he's hardly a total reach. Some scouts saw him as the top high school hitter in the draft with outstanding hands, a lightning-quick bat, and a chance to develop some power as his game matures. He won't be a shortstop long-term, but the bat should work at second or third base. Vogelbach has top-of-the-charts raw power, but he's also an incredibly bad-bodied teenager and already just plain fat.
DeVoss is hardly fat; he's a skinny speedster with a leadoff man's approach.
Cincinnati Reds Who They are: Stephenson is a classic first-round high school arm. He's already touches the mid-90s with his fastball while sitting at 90-94 mph, and his power breaking ball is already a quality pitch. He doesn't have a changeup, but scouts love his projection. Rosa is a 6-foot-4 athlete with average to plus power and speed, but his hitting tool will need plenty of development.
Cingrani is already signed and could move quickly through the system as a flame-throwing reliever who needs to improve his slider.
Houston Astros Who They are: Springer has the kind of tools rarely found in a college player. He’s an impressive physical specimen with above-average power and speed, good instincts in center field, and a plus arm. The biggest question is his bat, which has plenty of swing-and-miss in it. All of the high school pitching in Oklahoma this spring allowed plenty of people to see Houser, who has two plus pitches—a fastball and curveball—and a pro body.
Armstrong has thought to be a sure-fire first-round pick when he entered Vanderbilt, but injuries and ineffectiveness hurt his college career. He's 6-foot-7 and has very good arm strength, but he's still for more of a thrower than a pitcher.
Milwaukee Brewers Who They are: Jungmann had some of the most impressive numbers in college baseball this year, flirting with a sub-one ERA for much of the spring before some late-season struggles. His 6-foot-6 frame gives him plenty of angle on a low-90s fastball, and both his slider and changeup are at least average pitches. He's the kind of college player who could move through the system quickly but lacks star potential. Bradley was an enigma for most of the spring. As a bulky left-hander with a Roger Clemens body and low- to mid-90s heat, he's a scout's dream, but the results were rarely there. Lopez isn't much of a pitcher yet, but his long, lanky frame and fantastic athleticism absolutely screams projection.
Gagnon has already signed and has some similarity to Jungmann in that he doesn't blow away hitters, but does have a good three-pitch mix.
Pittsburgh Pirates Who They are: There are few pitchers at any level who can feature three plus-plus pitches, but Cole has just that. His fastball sits at 94-97 mph, touches triple digits, and scouts spend plenty of time arguing which is the better of his two secondary offerings—the devastating upper-80s slider with heavy bite, or the changeup that falls off the table. The knock against Cole is that he didn't dominate nearly as much as a pitcher with his stuff should, mostly due to command issues. His ceiling is pure ace, but he doesn't come without risks. After using the first pick of the second day to grab Stetson Allie last year, the Pirates took an even bigger risk with Bell, a top-10 talent who told teams not to draft him because he planned to attend the University of Texas. He's a switch-hitter who profiles as a middle-of-the-order run-producer more than any other high school player in the draft. His price tag is somewhere between steep and unsignable, to the point where along with Cole, the pair could end up representing the two biggest deals in the draft.
Dickerson is a bat-only prospect, but he has a sweet swing from the left side and solid power.
St. Louis Cardinals Who They are: Wong is a hitting machine who scouts nearly universally believe can rake his way to the big leagues. His power is more of the gap variety, and he's no more than an average defender. While there's little room for a star-level ceiling, there are plenty of scenarios where Wong develops into an above-average everyday player. Tilson is a great athlete who dropped a bit after a spring that fell below expectations. He's a plus-plus runner and very good center fielder, but his future will come down to how much he can hit and get on base, as he's not a power hitter. There were late indications that he'd be more signable than originally anticipated, which helped get him into the second round.
McElroy is another burner, who is even faster than Tilson, but quite small, so he'll need to develop true leadoff man skills.
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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It sounds as though you weren't overly thrilled with what the Cards did with their picks. I like that they tried to add athleticism, but I'd have liked to see them go for more players with pop, rather than rely on so many players with speed as their top tool. Especially early.