The BP Broadside: Bill... (06/23)
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June 23, 2011 Future ShockYankees + Prospects = Fear?
It's easy to miss the forest for the trees when it comes to the New York Yankees’ season. They've been riddled with injuries to important members of the roster, they've dealt with serious downturns in performances from aging stars like Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, and they had one of their annual one-day media circuses when Posada refused to hit lower in the lineup. However, the team has the third-best record in baseball and would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Yet the team could be better, and the Yankees seem to be reluctant—at this point to their detriment—in leaning on young players. For much of the first part of the century, the Yankees didn't have the prospects to help the team due to some downright embarrassing drafts. But that's not the case anymore: A combination of good picks and excellent work in the international market has transformed the system into one of baseball's best, and one that general manager Brian Cashman is happy to show public pride in while insisting that the Yankees want to keep their top prospects as opposed to using them as trade chips come July. For the first time in ages, they actually have the kind of prospects they've been hoping for, but they don't seem to know what they are doing with them. Take the Brian Gordon situation. Gordon is a fantastic story, but he’s also a perfect example of what's going wrong in the Bronx when it comes to long-term thinking. The Yankees needed a starter, and while Gordon performed admirably in his first turn, the club has very good prospects in Double-A with Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances. If they wanted to avoid the hype train coming to town, Triple-A righty Adam Warren has been surging for Triple-A Scranton and could have been promoted in the same quiet manner Ivan Nova arrived last year. But the Yankees seem almost scared to bring their prospects up. “They just don't seem to trust their young players,” said one big-league executive. “Look at what the Braves did. When they needed a warm body, they had no issue with calling on [Julio] Teheran or [Randall] Delgado, even though those guys weren't fully big league-ready.” Nobody is saying to call up one of the new Killer B’s for good, but to go through all of the machinations for Gordon instead of leaning on what the team already has for a handful of outings shows either a lack of confidence in their own prospects, or maybe more telling, an almost perverse fear of failure. The same applies to position players: The Jesus Montero situation showcases some of the unique variables the Yankees are dealing with. In nearly any other system, Montero would be a big-leaguer, and multiple scouts who have seen Montero play during his disappointing .291/.336/.414 showing at Triple-A say that there is a lack of effort and frustration to his game this year. One talent evaluator said, “He looks like a player who knows he's stuck in Pennsylvania.” The problem is that calling Montero up would mean benching Posada, and if you thought it was a kerfuffle when Posada opted out of the lineup for one day, imagine him hitting the pine for the most well-known prospect in the system. The Yankees don’t seem to have learned that when they've been forced to take chances on young players, those risks have paid off. They've done nothing in the draft lately; Brett Gardner represents the only regular player they've drafted and developed since the turn of the century, but New York has thrived in the international market. Robinson Cano was always seen as a good prospect—not a future superstar—during his minor-league career, yet when the Yankees gave him a shot at a job, he turned into an All-Star. That chance only came after the team figured out what everyone else already knew: Tony Womack wasn't anyone's answer at second base. Here’s a modest proposal: Call Montero up. The Yankees don't have to bench Posada, but they do have to limit his role to get Montero consistent at-bats. New York can give Mark Teixeira the occasional day off, and you can even catch Montero once a week. Sure, he's awful back there, but so is Francisco Cervelli. At least Montero can make up for his mistakes behind the plate when he steps up to it. The next time the team needs a starting pitcher, which is going to happen to any team that is not the 2005 White Sox, call on somebody in the system. Warren and David Phelps at Triple-A are every bit as good as Gordon if the Yankees don't want to make a splash with the Double-A kids, but keep in mind that a quick one- or two-start debut with the up-front knowledge of a return ticket to Trenton regardless of the results can greatly lessen the pressure, both for the player and the fans. “The Yankees have made this big deal about their farm system, and they seem to be afraid that if those players fail. People will start asking what have they been making such a big deal about,” theorized a National League executive. The problem is, if the Yankees don't bring the prospects up, the same question applies.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Resident Fantasy Genius: The Pursuit of Wins
Since this is an ESPN-first article, it probably won't generate a ton of response here --- but I think this is the most thought-provoking thing I've read about the Yankees in awhile. Fear of angering Posada, fear of angering Jeter, fear of exposing prospects --- there is something weird and wuss-like going on with this team.
I disagree. Everyone loves to bash the Yankees front office, but Cashman is an extremely patient and well though-out guy. New York is a big stage, and every time New York has rushed its prospects it's been a disaster. In a lost year, panic over the team's rotation has ruined Joba Chamberlain's career.
Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy had serious issues pitching in New York when they were thrown into the pressure cooker rotation. Kennedy was a shell of himself until he went to Arizona years later. Hughes was a mess during his first couple of seasons and still hasn't harnessed his brilliant-yet-over-hyped potential.
Cano, Robertson and Soriano did work out very well, but Brackman could go the way of Drew Henson (at least partially) if fans see the big money arm struggle at Yankee stadium.
Banuelos and Betances are too valuable, and too fragile to throw into the team's playoff race, midseason. Betances had TJ surgery a couple of years ago, and it's probably not a good move to try to squeeze 6, high-stress innings per start out of his young arm. Banuelos is 20 years old. Name one other 20 year old pitcher that has ever found success with the Yankees (outside of borderline Hall of Famers).
Pitching isn't even the Yankees problem right now. They're getting plenty of quality innings out of journeymen like Colon, Garcia, Gordon, Nova, Ayala and Wade. The team has serious issues making contact with men on base, and they're very inconsistent. Their fielding has been shaky and they've seriously stunted Eduardo Nunez's development by benching him for a monthonly to allow the NY media to freak out about his rusty glove when he finally played.
If it were up to Cashman, he obviously wouldn't have overpaid for Jeter (even with the 3000 hits thing)-- knowing that they'd waste their payroll on a guy that doesn't even produce like a starter.--- This may sound cold, but the Red Sox had no problem benching their captain, saying farewell to Damon and trading Garciaparra. --- They also wouldn't have Soriano who's been a disaster and would be plenty happy with their dirt-cheap middle relief core led by Robertson, Ayala and Noesi. They'd have the money to grab a useful lefty- a problem that's killing their staff's situational effectiveness-- like Brian Fuentes or Craig Breslow.
Finally, how would Jesus Montero help the team exactly? A rookie power-hitting 1B/DH on a team that has to deal with getting the playing time for bat-only Jorge Posada and has a big-money 1B in Mark Teixeira. Montero isn't exactly tearing AAA apart either (.748 OPS) and even if he did have a fabulous rookie debut, how useful is a slow, rookie, right-handed DH who hits .270/.340/.480 on a team that already slugs plenty of homeruns and needs either lefty arms or veteran clutch-hitting bats.
Veteran clutch hitting bats...ha.
You imply an important point here --- made explicit by others below --- that the Yankees judgement and Brian Cashman's judgement are two different, often contradictory, things. Not being a daily Yankee watcher, that's a nuance I'm glad to be clued into.
But the upshot of it all, the sum of the actions taken by whoever is making the final decisions, is still a hodge-podge of half-measures, second-guesses and reluctance, isn't it? (The Joba chronicle being the quintessential example.)
You're exactly right, too, in citing what the Red Sox would have done instead. And therein lies the answer to your question about Montero. Faced with a similar problem behind the plate, Boston went out and got themselves a lesser-Mentero. Jarod Saltalamacchia.
Whether or not he's the answer back there isn't the point. The point is, success or failure, every move the Sox make is guided by a plan for the future. With the Yankees, it's just the opposite --- an inability to let go of the past.
yeah...except Salty is 26 and hasn't been a prospect in years, whereas Montero is 21 and still has stuff to learn. I'm totally in favor of calling up montero and stashing Cervelli in AAA, but to compare the Sox with Salty and the Yankees with Montero, and praise the sox for playing Salty at catcher is just shortsighted.
whether or not you believe it, Montero is still officially listed as a catcher. the idea is that he'd be back up catcher instead of the .175 hitting cervelli, allowing girardi to rest Martin more often, as well as getting some at-bats from DH instead of the seemingly inept Posada.
You're right, esp about the age/experience/usefulness difference between Montero and Salty. That wasn't a great parallel. But I think there's validity to the larger point I was trying to make. The Sox succeed by looking forward, seeing opportunities for future upside, while the Yankees seem anchored in what worked three years ago.