BP Comment Quick Links
April 12, 2002 6-4-3Noises from the Feedbag, Part TwoAs I explained last week, we asked the attendees at each Pizza Feed to predict the results of the divisional races this year, along with the World Series winner, major award winners, managerial firings, etc. This week, we'll take a look at the American League divisional races. For each division, the average rank of each team is listed, along with the standard deviation for each team, which is a measure of how much variability there was for each team. The lower the deviation, the more agreement there is about that team's place in the standings.Let's check out what the collective wisdom says about the AL.
AL East
Team Average Std. Dev.
That's about as suspenseful as an episode of Trapper John, M.D. A grand total of four people predicted a win for anyone
but the Yankees, and of those four, three admitted to being "congenital" or "habitual" Red Sox fans.
Clearly, the suspense in this division is the mammoth struggle for fourth, with the Paul Wilson-led Devil Rays taking on
the established, proven Orioles squad, led by Jeff Conine.
There was a kind of grim unanimity that the only prayer the Red Sox have of winning the division depends on Roger Clemens
collapsing, Pedro Martinez having a healthy enough shoulder to pitch 250 innings, Derek Lowe becoming a dominant
starter, Manny Ramirez having healthy hamstrings, Nomar Garciaparra showing no ill effects from his injury,
Trot Nixon hitting lefties, and Tony Clark finally taking the step forward that the Tigers were looking for four
years ago. People are optimistic about Nick Johnson, Derek Jeter, Brandon Lyon, Joe Kennedy,
Dewon Brazelton, and Gabe Gross, some more vociferously than others.
Some yelled-out ideas about what's going to decide the division:
AL Central
Team Average Std. Dev.
This was the winner of the "This division could have a winner under .500" award. Several people were curious about why
the White Sox rotation was held in such high esteem. "Jon Garland, Gary Glover, Mark Buerhle, Jim
Parque, Jon Rauch, Todd Ritchie, Danny Wright...why do people think this is a great young rotation?
There's no one reliable here. Some have injury problems, some don't strike anyone out, and the bullpen's got more use for a
physical therapist than a coach." People raved about and love to watch the Twins defense. "Cleveland's finally
starting a rebuilding program, but I think they're rebuilding the Detroit Tigers."
One attendee shared by optimism about Danys Baez, so he gets some electrons today: "Baez will be a legitimate Cy
Young candidate immediately. He was successful in Cuba, and his stuff is unhittable when he's on." "Do you think the
entire Minnesota front office was praying for Rick Reed to choose free agency?" There's not a lot of optimism about
the bottom tier of the division, but there is a surprising amount of compassion. "We'll pay for the site if you guys will
provide anti-depressants for Rany."
OK, but Rob Neyer and John Sickels are on their own. Rany could, however, write them the scrip.
Some yelled-out ideas about what's going to decide the division:
AL West
Team Average Std. Dev.
Before Mariners fans continue with the e-mails accusing me of being nothing more than a far more attractive Katherine Harris,
let me break down the precinct voting for you:
Seattle Feed: Mariners 1.26, Athletics 1.91
No one picked Al Gore to win the AL West.
I have a funny feeling that my eight-minute rant on why Ichiro Suzuki is baseball's most overrated player wouldn't have
played as well in Seattle, and I'm noted for easy bruising, so it's probably best that the geographic distribution of BP
staffers is what it is.
Rangers fans made a compelling and excessively persistent case for their club being underrated. "One of the basic things
about analysis is the debunking of the myth that pitching is 75% of the game or whatever. So why won't Texas win? Against
right-handers, their weakest hitter on the field could be Gabe Kapler, and they could score 1000 runs!" Pizza
Feeders are evenly split on the likely success of Chan Ho Park in Texas. Various flavors of "His splits really
aren't a big deal, particularly if you break down his starts" were about as common as "He'll crumble like Texas
starters always do."
The Angels were largely ignored, although one Angel fan offered me $22 cash if I could pull some strings and move them into the
AL Central. We compromised. I took the $22, and the Angels will instead finish fourth in baseball's toughest division.
The Seattle/Oakland argument seems to turn on three points:
Some yelled-out ideas about what's going to decide the division:
That last guy just kept yelling that no matter what was being talked about.
NL MVP:
1. Gary Sheffield
AL MVP:
1. Alex Rodriguez
NL Cy Young:
1. Randy Johnson
AL Cy Young:
1. Pedro Martinez
NL Rookie of the Year:
1. Sean Burroughs
AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Carlos Pena
Two things: one, the attendees are on crack. If you pick the Rangers to finish third, and you pick Alex Rodriguez to win
the MVP, you're predicting a sudden wave of enlightenment to wash over the voters, and for them to suddenly realize that it's
Most Valuable Player, not Most Valuable Player On A Really Successful Team. Second, the Rookie of the Year votes came in well
before it was known that Hank Blalock would be in the majors to start the season, so take the Carlos Pena pick with a
grain of salt. (Like you're basing your major life decisions on a xeroxed survey.)
And, finally, we asked Pizza Feed Attendees whether or not the 2003 baseball season would start on time:
Yes, the 2003 season will begin on time: 30
Pizza Feed attendees see the glass as about 3/5 full. I can live with that for now.
Gary Huckabay is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
clicking here.
Gary Huckabay is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 0 comments have been left for this article.
|