Future Shock: Raining ... (06/01)
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June 3, 2011 Future ShockMock Draft: The Zero IssueWhat you see below is my current mock draft. Instead of big write-ups, which I’m saving for my final mock draft on Monday, these are the notes from calls and texts in my latest mock worksheet with source names removed. I hope it's a fun look at how the sausage is made. 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA. This is still a lean at best. Not only does nobody know, but the Pirates almost seem to be enjoying the reaction to their indecisiveness.
2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. Rendon is still Seattle's focus, but the Francisco Lindor rumors grow by the hour. He still looks like Plan B, but a shock here is possible.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia. Nothing but college arms seemingly in the mix, and Hultzen has been the focus all year. If he's gone, Trevor Bauer looks like their second choice.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK). Bundy remains strongly connected to Baltimore, but if calls over the weekend don't give them a clearer view of how much money it will take to sign Bundy, they could switch to Bauer.
5. Kansas City Royals: Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA. The focus is on pitching, specifically guys who can catch up to their upper level prospects quickly, and Bauer fits the bill. Ignore the long-toss hype, they'll take him.
6. Washington Nationals: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner Edgerton HS (KS). The Nationals have seen what a high-profile prospect can do for fan interest, and they want to make another splash despite not having the top pick.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde Academy (FL). While this pick is unprotected, Arizona is not expected to be overly conservative like some teams. That said, Archie Bradley could be too rich for their blood, and Lindor's arrival could line up well with the loss of Stephen Drew to free agency.
8. Cleveland Indians: Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK). The Indians are the first big wild card. They've been attached to names in every quadrant except high school bats. A high school arm is out of character, but Bradley could be too good to pass up.
9. Chicago Cubs: Taylor Guerreri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (SC). The next highly unpredictable pick in the top ten. Late rumors have the Cubs hoping a big college arm falls to them, but the highest upside high school arm could be the plan.
10. San Diego Padres: Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticut. This pick is unprotected, and Barnes fits well in this slot as a safe, affordable pitcher who could move quickly.
11. Houston Astros: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt. The Astros want a pitcher, and indications are that they believe Gray can stick as a starter.
12. Milwaukee Brewers: George Springer, OF, Connecticut. The Brewers have been attached to nearly every arm that fits in this slot, but with literally no one who even resembles a position prospect in the system, an up-the-middle-talent with upside like Springer's could add some zip to an otherwise moribund system.
13. New York Mets: Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas. While many have assumed a safe college position player, their focus seems to be on pitching. Jungmann shouldn't be a difficult sign, and has the polish to breeze through the system and catch up to Matt Harvey and Juerys Familia's timetable.
14. Florida Marlins: Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU. While the Marlins tend to go the high school route, with their system in such dire straits it seems as if they are more focused on college players this year. One possible surprise here is Florida high school product Javier Baez.
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Levi Michael, SS, University of North Carolina. The Brewers will play it safe with an unprotected pick. With Yuni Betancourt in the big leagues and nothing resembling a real shortstop in the system, Michael is a bit of an overdraft but almost makes too much sense.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers: Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra HS (CA). High school southpaw Daniel Norris scared them off with his $4 million bonus demands; their financial situation will not allow for aggressiveness here. They love Stephenson, and more importantly, they can sign him.
17. Los Angeles Angels: Javier Baez, SS, Arlington County Day School (FL). The Angels have been attached to pretty much every high school arm that fits around here, but they also are rumored to have some interest in Baez, who would be a nice find this late in the draft. A current crazy rumor has them making a run at Josh Bell, but this is too early for such a gambit.
18. Oakland Athletics: Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill HS (TN). The Athletics taking a high school pitcher in the first round? Not the best marketing move with the Moneyball movie around the corner, but they have been heavy at Norris’s games and he's clearly in the mix. If they don't want to risk taking him due to the bonus demands, junior college speedster Cory Spagenberg would be the likely pick.
19. Boston Red Sox: Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky. The Red Sox drafted Meyer out of high school three years ago and made a big run at signing him, so the interest is certainly there and it's doubtful they will get another shot at him seven picks later.
20. Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah. It's very rare to hear one name connected so often with a team drafting so late in the first round, but that's the case with Cron and the Rockies. He can't run, can't throw, and can't field, but he's also the college bat most likely to hit in the middle of a big league lineup.
21. Toronto Blue Jays: Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech. Toronto plays it notoriously close to the vest, but rumors have them looking at pitching, and Bradley is just a guy who I have to get off the board.
22. St. Louis Cardinals: Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy HS (AR). The Cardinals have very few names attached to them other than the usual list of high school pitching suspects expected to go in this area. Howard is a semi-local product who has gotten some attention from St. Louis. They have also been aggressive at times of late, and could make a surprising run at a big bonus player.
23. Washington Nationals: Cory Spagenberg, 3B, Indian River State. The Nationals would love to make another splash here, but Springer will cost enough as is. Athletes and upside fit the bill, and Spagenburg would slide in with that thinking.
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (FL). Indications are that the Rays will play it safe with the first of their record-number of early picks, then take risks later. They won't be thinking under slot as much as simply the best available player who isn't expected to produce troublesome negotiations. Fernandez is a local product, and the team is very familiar with his abilities.
25. San Diego Padres: Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii. No direction on this pick, but the system is quite short on up-the-middle players. Wong could be a perfect fit.
26. Boston Red Sox: Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (NM). The Red Sox usually save their big money for after the first round, but with many players dropping big bonus demands, they'll have to move a little earlier. Any high school player wanting big money is in the mix here. This could be a landing spot for Josh Bell and Brandon Nimmo as well, and they might go in a different direction at #19 hoping Meyer can still be here.
27. Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon State. The Reds seems to be looking at pitching, specifically something left from the college crop that can move quicker than a prep player. Anderson fits well here.
28. Atlanta Braves: Trevor Story, SS, Irving HS (TX). The Braves seem to be focusing on high school pitching and athletes. They like local product Dwight Smith, Jr., but this is too high for him. They've been busy in Texas over the last few years, and Story is an athletic up-the-middle player that could appeal to them.
29. San Francisco Giants: Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (CA). I've heard nothing but high school arms here, but Tyson's younger brother has come up often.
30. Minnesota Twins: Kyle Winkler, RHP, Texas Christian. The Twins seems to be looking at pitching, specifically something left from the college crop, with the usual focus on fastball command. Winkler isn't the sexiest guy on a scouting level, but he's throws strikes, misses bats, and had an outstanding spring..
31. Tampa Bay Rays: Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami-Dade JC. The Rays are expected to focus on athletes with many of their picks, but they might stay within normal slot range here with Goodwin and hope that some of the bigger names that drop fall all the way to the supplemental round.
32. Tampa Bays Rays: Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Bishop Verot HS (FL). While the Rays are expected to continue their run on tools, late rumors had them interested in Vogelbach with one of their first-round picks. He fits well in a system that lacks power prospects, although a pre-draft letter indicated that he was looking for a $1.65 million bonus.
33. Texas Rangers: Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State. There is some thought that the Rangers will spend big on a player like Josh Bell, but that also might be a ploy best used in the later rounds. Their location just might give them a leg up on landingBell, but Osich is a name that has been in the rumor mill for a while. One name I've yet to hear is their 2009 first-round pick, left-hander Matt Purke.
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #10
This is like crack. Thanks for the weekend present, KG! Bundy to O's does make crazy sense, especially since his big bro is already in Baltimore's system. But given the talent (*and* polish) of the kid, we all may be underestimating the likelihood that he goes even higher (at least 3rd, and maybe a dark horse for 1st). And about Bubba Starling to KC, if the UCLA pitchers, Bundy, and Rendon are off the board, I could see it happening, for three reasons: (1) the system is so loaded (incl. with pitching) at the upper levels that maybe they can afford to go HS with this pick; (2) don't underestimate the Mauer Effect -- yes, the buzz is a product of the fans & local media, but these things still matter from a butts-in-seats perspective; and (3) losing Lamb to TJ within a week of the draft -- who knows what psychological effect this may have on the KC brass on Monday (TINSTAAPP, after all), and you can't see them taking any other *hitter* over Starling, can you?
Once again, thanks for all your hard work this week.