April 7, 2011

BP Unfiltered

For Amusement Only 4/7

by John Perrotto

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Scanning the early odds, I see a six-pack of plays on Thursday's schedule, all in day games and including one on a heavy underdog.

The law of averages says the Red Sox eventually have to win a game. However, we're going against the law of averages and taking the Indians and Fausto Carmona +156 over the Red Sox and Jon Lester. Carmona has to be better than on Opening Day when he was rocked for 10 runs in three innings by the White Sox. At least, the law of averages says so. Also don't discount the fact that the Indians have won seven of their last nine games against the Red Sox.

I'll also go with the Reds and Sam LeCure -146 over the Astros and Brett Myers. It's hard to bet against Myers in this matchup but the Reds have won 22 of their last 28 against the winless Astros.

We'll keep riding the Blue Jays, taking them and Ricky Romero -131 over the Athletics and Trevor Cahill. It's hard to go against the trend of the Blue Jays winning 19 of their last 25 against the A's.

An underdog play of the Pirates and Paul Maholm +106 over the Rockies and Esmil Rogers seems in order in the home opener at PNC Park. Maholm threw 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Cubs in his season debut and the Pirates come home on a bit of a roll after winning back-to-back road series for the first time since 2007.

I'll take the Braves and Tommy Hanson -109 over the Brewers and Shaun Marcum. Marcum was awfully shaky in his first start, walking five in 4 2/3 innings, and seems to still be feeling the effect of the shoulder injury that caused him to miss some time in spring training.

Finally, I'll also take the home opener angle again, this time with the White Sox and Edwin Jackson -116 over the winless Rays and David Price.

I'll stick with the Indians all the way to -105, the Reds to -155, the Blue Jays to -155, the Pirates to -130, the Braves to -125 and the White Sox to -155.

Wednesday's picks produced a 5-4 record but -64 units. The winners were the Angels -104 over the Rays, the Rangers -125 over the Mariners, the White Sox -113 over the Royals, the Blue Jays -110 over the Athletics and the Marlins -121 over the Nationals while the losers were the Cardinals -200 over the Pirates, the Cubs -164 over the Diamondbacks, the Padres +125 over the Giants and the Orioles +123 over the Tigers

Season record: 15-14 (.517)

Net: -134

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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