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April 1, 2011 BP UnfilteredFor Amusement Only 4/1Based on the early odds, there are three matchups I like Friday, starting with a matinee in which I'll take the Rangers and C.J. Wilson plus-105 over the Red Sox and Jon Lester. The Rangers are 15-4 in Wilson's last 19 starts in Arlington. I would stick with the Rangers unless the odds go above minus-105. I also see two favorable late-night matchups on the West Coast, going with the Athletics and Trevor Cahill minus -120 over the Mariners and Felix Hernandez, and the Giants and Jonathan Sanchez at an even 100-100 over the Dodgers and Chad Billingsley. Like Wilson, Cahill is tough to beat at home as the Athletics are 20-7 in his last 27 starts in Oakland. I would not go past minus-125 with the Athletics or past minus-105 on the Giants. Opening Day picks went 1-1 with the Reds rallying for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to beat the Brewers 7-6 and the Giants falling to the Dodgers 2-1. From a money standpoint, it was a breakeven day as the Reds were 120-100 favorites and the Giants were 100-101 underdogs. Season record: 1-1(.500) Profit/loss: $0
John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 6 comments have been left for this article.
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Are you sure about using win-loss records at home as an indicating factor in how these future games might play out? For instance, the Rangers may have been 15-4 in C.J. Wilson's last 19 home games, but he had a higher ERA at home (3.70) than on the road (2.91). When I looked at those lines, they all seemed to be at least close enough to the right spot that I wouldn't want to play them.
Are you sure about using ERA when comparing home/road splits? C.J. Wilson's home/road xFIPs are 4.03/4.11.
Also, you're ignoring park factors when comparing ERAs. While it won't be 3.70/2.91, teams do tend to score more runs in Arlington than other places.
I wasn't using his ERA to say "he was substantially better on the road than at home." I was using it as "just giving a win-loss record at home doesn't tell enough of the story for me." 19 games is a small sample size. I was simply trying to show that C.J. didn't pitch substantially better at home, even when the Rangers won a higher percentage of games there. The xFIP probably shows this better, so thank you.
If you're comfortable with the Rangers at -105, that means you think the Rangers have a greater than around 51.22% chance of winning. I like the Red Sox more than the Rangers in that game, and don't like the Rangers enough at +105. That's what I was trying to say.