Prospectus Q&A: Bobby ... (04/01)
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April 1, 2011 Team Injury ProjectionLos Angeles Dodgers
The Team Injury Projections are here, driven by our brand new injury forecasting system, the Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results—or, more succinctly, CHIPPER. Thanks to work by Colin Wyers and Dan Turkenkopf and a database loaded with injuries dating back to the 2002 season—that's nearly 4,600 players and well over 400,000 days lost to injury—we now have a system that produces injury-risk assessments to three different degrees. CHIPPER projects ratings for players based on their injury history—these ratings measure the probability of a player missing one or more games, 15 or more games, or 30 or more games. CHIPPER will have additional features added to it throughout the spring and early season that will enhance the accuracy of our injury coverage. These ratings are also available in the Player Forecast Manager (pfm.baseballprospectus.com), where they'll be sortable by league or position—you won’t have to wait for us to finish writing this series in order to see the health ratings for all of the players.
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Corey Dawkins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @CoreyDawkinsBP
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Fantasy Beat: Value Picks in the Rotation
The news today that Matt Holliday is undergoing an appendectomy (no, this is not an April Fools joke) gets me thinking about a possible addition to these summaries: is there any way to show which guys have injuries that are not baseball-related, or otherwise, not anything that a training staff could have prevented or mitigated? The difference between a strained hammy from inadequate stretching, and an appendectomy or mononucleosis (sympathies, Bronson Arroyo, been there...), is the difference between something a team might try to address, and something that's plain old bad luck.