Fantasy Beat

The most important thing about an auction, and I learned it the hard way, is understanding its dynamics. Being able to anticipate the phases of an auction and exploit them will give you a big advantage.

Phase 1 is where the superstars get nominated Everybody has a full bank, and if you have to have Hanley, what's the difference between $44 and $46? The trick here is that you almost always will have to "overpay" for the true superstars. Spend too much here and you will have nothing but filler and gambles for 3/4 of your roster. Spend too little, and you're counting on nice complementary players like Nick Swisher and Vladimir Guerrero to anchor your offense.

The beauty of an auction is that you can obtain multiple "first round" players. Last year, one manager got Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Roy Halladay in the first hour. In shallow leagues, this is an especially viable approach, because replacement level free agents are still useful players. Much riskier in shallow leagues, where it might mean starting Brendan Ryan, Carlos Gomez and Melvin Mora just because you think they'll get regular ABs.

In phase 1, lots of managers try to get money off the table, nominating high-profile guys they have no interest in but know will go for real money. It is immensely satisfying when I nominate Carlos Zambrano, who I internally value at $4-$5, and somebody pays $15.

Usually, a handful of scrubs are nominated in phase 1. Either the nominating manager thinks he's a sleeper, or he's trying to get someone to waste a couple of precious dollars on complete garbage because "the book" says he's worth $4. If you think that scrub is a sleeper, wait to see if there is any interest. If it's nothing but crickets for 4-5 seconds, you can probably have him for $2. That's how I got 27 HR from a catcher-eligible Brandon Inge two years ago.

After this initial rush, many managers have seriously depleted their funds and have acquired their "must haves," and so they turn timid. They might keep bidding, but they drop out quickly. The ones who were most aggressive acquiring stars might not bid at all for an hour, waiting until more managers are as broke as they are.

This is phase 2, when the bargains happen. Last year, this is when I got Brett Gardner for $3 and Colby Rasmus for $2. Know which guys you like in tiers 2 and 3, and take your shots here.

Be aggressive. Don't get into bidding wars, but don't be afraid to bid $7 for a guy you think is worth $14, just because the guy just before him went for only $5 and you thought he was just as good (and, obviously, the only reason you should have allowed somebody else to buy that guy for $5 is that you had the position filled). The goal isn't to be able to brag about getting the single best bargain, but to get as many cheap contributors as possible. The better and more self-evident the bargains are, the shorter phase 2 lasts. It is rarely more than 20 players, although profit opportunities will crop up, especially for less well known players.

Then, curiously, the prices start to go up. Managers realize they're missing out on bargains so they get back in. Managers realize that there are only two adequate middle infielders left, and four teams need to fill that spot. Managers realize that there are only 3 established stars or quasi-stars left. In this stage of the very same auction last year, Erick Aybar went for $24 -- the same price as Dustin Pedroia a couple of hours earlier.

Then it settles down to mostly dollar picks, with the occasional bidding war between the handful of managers who can bid more than $1 (two years ago I got Andrew McCutchen for $4 at this phase). In my league, this means guys in position battles, middle relievers, rookies who will probably get a call up in June, veterans who will probably come off the DL in May, the half of a platoon that starts against righty pitchers, and second catchers. Some of these guys will return serious value, but all carry high levels of risk or low ceilings. I prefer to go with high risk hitters and middle relievers with good ratios.

There is a generally a premium on players in local markets, and a discount for players on low profile teams in distant markets. If your league members are from California, know the rosters of the Pirates, Orioles, Blue Jays and Marlins cold. Your competition will know who Hanley and Jose Bautista are, but you might be able to get Neil Walker, Gaby Sanchez, Ricky Romero, and Luke Scott for a buck or two (in my league, that would have been serious profit last year)