Fantasy Beat

There's some wisdom here...Thanks for the laughs!

Loved this take Sky. We may disagree on stocking up pitching prospects, but I don't think either of us is going to be a pushover in this league!

Love it! I just joined a continuing AL league and have been tested with ridiculous offers from day 1. I'd add to the list of "stop offering" - guys in the other league who are under contract for several years. Am I really going to wait 2-3 years for guys like Tabata, Marcum or Halladay to get to the point where their teams will trade them and then I have to hope they go to the AL? Come on.

I have two theories as to why prospects are overrated beyond the obvious "we're all infatuated with potential."

1. There are limited keepers. So once a prospect makes it to the majors, he has to be really good in order to be worth a roster spot. League-average players have value within a season, but not long-term, since they aren't keepable. Not only do prospects have to make it to MLB, they have to make it beyond league-average. That rarely happens.

2. Salaries don't matter. In real baseball, young guys, even if they're worth only 1-2 wins, have a lot of value because they're free. But in Scoresheet, there's no salary difference between Brent Morel and Vernon Wells.

I would add only relying on a particular system's projections. Yes, I know Bill James has so and so projected for a .820 OPS, but he had a .700 OPS last year, and I'm not trading Prince Fielder for him.

Sky, I pretty much agree with everything you said, though for me the reason I don't value prospects very highly is because I am horrible at predicting which ones will make it. If I draft a young guy in single or double A it is the kiss of death for that plaeyr.
One note though - in Scoresheet middle relievers and set up men are *far* more valuable than they are in regular Rotisserie. Major league teams have a very difficult time winning without a very good/deep bullpen, and those relievers are just as valuable to their Scoresheet team as they are to their major league team. After all, most starting pitchers now pitch 6 innings a game at most, and someone has to get form the starter to the closer. I do agree that you can wait awhile to start drafting middle relievers, but for most drafts I think you need to stock up on them in rounds 18-25, as after that most of the good ones are long gone.

My #1 trade gripe is people who say "Who on my team would you take for [Insert Player Name]?"

If you want to trade, make an offer. I won't do it for you.

I'm in the middle of a Scoresheet AL-only draft right now, round 18, wondering if and when Brandon Webb is worth a pick. Ditto for Erik Bedard.

Avoid pitchers with major shoulder operations. They rarely make it all the way back.

Sky, on prospects you are in agreement with what I have advocated for many years: http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id73.html

Here is another article I wrote over five years ago on a study regarding 13 years of trades in my league: http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id66.html. The trading rules of thumb uncovered hold up very well.

- John Carter
aka Scoresheetwiz

I'm assuming this "advice" is for pre-season trades? Because the market for relievers is pretty robust mid-season, when contenders are trying to solidify their bullpens...

I wish these people who give a negative ratings would have the guts to explain why. Instead the authors have to guess what about their comment was offensive or needs improving. My guess with my first comment is that it wasn't specific enough.

Unfortunately, I can't find the somewhat old article I read recently here by Wil Carroll that put the success rate of a certain type of shoulder operation at 3%. The one success he cited was a pitcher I couldn't even remember, so I would hardly call that a success that applies to Brandon Webb or Eric Bedard. Hence, I cannot confirm that the type of operation discussed was precisely the same as Webb's and Bedard's, but I recall the article mentioning that shoulder operations tend to be very tricky. Hence, it was probably discussing them in general, in which case it would apply to Bedard and Webb.

I'm not going to even try to guess what was objectionable about my other comment above which provided a link to a related article. A negative rating is like a "boo". When someone is making a time consuming effort to be helpful and they get boo-ed, it is very hurtful. And since there is no explanation for the rating, it is not helpful either.

I think sometimes it's just an accident. I wanted to rate a +1 to a comment awhile ago but by accident clicked the - sign instead, but because there is no clear differentiation between the + and - I didn't notice. Fangraphs colors their + and - red and green so it's clear what you did. Maybe a similar system would work here?

Once the +/- system gets figured out, we'll have to work on replies. ;)

I'm in the same league as Sky, and someone recently offered me a 36-year-old pitcher for either one of two 24-year-outfielders who are better-than-even bets to play in multiple All-Star games over the next half dozen years.

The veteran pitcher is still good, but just like in "real life baseball," balancing the present and future is important.

Thank you for answering, eighteen. I will try to consider the level of special knowledge in my answers and, perhaps, raise the bar somewhat.

However, the questioner in that particular case obviously didn't seem aware of the rareness of such shoulder surgery recoveries, since he was considering drafting those pitchers in round 18. While my answer was obvious to you, it seemed likely helpful to touchstone033, and some other readers. Should we ignore such questions unless we have some inside knowledge about how that player is doing? I've certainly read many Chat responses here that were much more obvious than my response. I'm not against raising that standard, but we all have different standards.

You are in sooooo much trouble with those first three rules. And with a 24 team BL, you're going to find talent very scarce, particularly when it comes to frontline starters. (20 year scoresheeter)