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February 12, 2011 Baseball Prospectus Book NewsYour First Look at BP2011We're a little over a week away from our official Amazon ship date, but I'm holding a bona fide copy of Baseball Prospectus 2011 which was overnighted from our publisher (Wiley). The express purpose of this express shipment is that I'm going to be making a television appearance this weekend. I’ll be a guest on the Fox Sports Extra show — that’s channel 5 and 705 (WNYW) here in New York City, at least on Time Warner Cable — on Sunday night at 10:30 PM Eastern, talking about the Yankees and Mets with host Duke Castiglione. This will be the third time I’ve been the guest on Duke's show, and while my appearances have been brief, it’s an honor to get any kind of air time in a major market, not to mention a whole lot of fun. It's also great exposure for our annual book, which will be making its way to you shortly. First off, I can confirm that the 16th edition of our annual contains a chapter on the St. Louis Cardinals, something that was true of only 14 of our previous 15 editions. It's also got chapters devoted to the other 29 teams, as well as most of the stuff Steven Goldman promised you back in December, including a foreword by the fabulous Joe Posnanski. Alas, the one thing I'm aware of that's missing is the promised JAWS-related content, something which owed to the enormity of Colin Wyers' task as the book's statistical guardian. For more info, including where to order this online, please see our BP2011 page. Two things you'll notice once you get this book into your hot little hands. First, it consists of fewer pages than our previous books, 584 where last year's was 652, and second, the player comment pages have undergone a facelift. Those two developments go hand in hand. Because we decided to pare down the array of statistics we provide in the book — there's no VORP in here, for one thing — I suggested to Steve that we seize this opportunity to tighten up the presentation. You can get a rough idea from these iPhone photos:
The biographical data which was loosely strewn around each player's stats has now been corralled into the gray boxes to the left of those stats, and the type size on all of the text has been decreased a bit. The result is that we're able to provide more commentary on each player than ever before, yet do so on the same number of players (more than 1,600, as the book cover promises) in less space. For example, on the two spreads above, both of Yankee hitters who fall in the first half of the alphabet (Robinson Cano, Francisco Cervelli, et al.) we've got 59 lines of commentary this year, where we had 45 lines last year, with more words per line as well. Yes, I'm afraid it's true. Moreso than CC Sabathia, Pablo Sandoval, or this humble wordsmith, the Baseball Prospectus annual is in the best shape of its life. If you're in the New York area, tune in on Sunday to see for yourself.
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Ummm- just a question, no VORP in the book, and no VORP in the spreadsheet? Will VORP be in the player cards still?
I'll let Colin elaborate when he gets a chance, but quoting from his stats intro in the book:
"Note that here we diverge from past volumes of the BP annual and have left out VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, altogether. This doesn't mean that we have discarded the underpinnings of VORP; we simply determined that it wasn't necessary to have two ways of measuring the same player's contributions relative to replacement."
VORP is great. Disappointed that it is not in there.
VORP is still HERE, and will continue to be. But we had a decision to make in terms of presenting an ever-larger book, or cutting our player commentary down, or excising a couple of stats columns that are freely available on the net in a way that wasn't true when the book started back in 1996. It was an easy decision.
Will VORP for 2011 projections be available somewhere? As a fantasy player, I like the range of difference in VORP projections...in 2010 the top VORP was Albert's 81.8, while #30 was David Ortiz with 43.7. That's a clear separation. WARP-1 was Albert Pujols again at 8.2. #30 was Chase Utley at 4.9. Warp has 13 or so players that are less than 1 whole point different from each other.
You do realize that with a conversion rate of approximately 10 runs to one win that you're talking about a spread from 1 to 30 of 3.8 wins for VORP, and 3.3 wins for WARP, right?
I do - it's just the glance at or quick add to a spreadsheet that I had apparently been misguided in getting used to with the VORP view. When agonizing over a draft pick I guess I like to make myself feel better by using the 16.1 gap in VORP from Ryan Braun to Andres Torres instead of the 1.4 in WARP. It's a scale thing and we'll adjust to the view I'm sure...