Analyze This

Carl Pavano may be next on the list for "Dark Horse Free Agents." He had one helluva season with the Twins (17 wins, 221 IP, 4.15 SIERA).

Why not include the Dodgers on the list of teams that could sorely use De La Rosa's services? Is the divorce mess THAT crippling?

I think the Mets are a great fit, but I can't see Sandy Alderson spending on anyone this winter.

I don't see the Nationals getting Cliff Lee, so look for them to swoop in and make a bid. They need a solid starter to be out front of the rotation in 2011, and a guy who can help out Strasburg and Zimmermann as they mature in 2012 and beyond.

With the dough the Nats save by not keeping Dunn, I see JDLR as a nice fallback option.

For what it's worth, I don't trust Carl Pavano to repeat anything close to his 2010 numbers. Expect a fairly steep regression from him, especially if he goes to a team with poor defense.

I think the Rox would really like to keep De La Rosa, but there's some question as to how out of control the bidding will get. He's only ever been good here, and seems to be in a comfort zone with the Rockies coaches, et al, but all that being said, I think he'll end up with, I dunno, the Angels or something? He's got value, but somebody's gonna pay way too much for him. He can be maddeningly inconsistent, lose focus, and walk guys like crazy, but he can also be really dominant. I hope the Rox keep him, but I bet that he goes somewhere else.

can he pitch 200 innings?

When healthy (and given the chance to start 32 games), De La Rosa could throw just under 200 innings.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=DELAROSA19810405A

The Rockies got DLRosa off the virtual scrap heap, then got him in a good place mentally. He always had good stuff, but tended to melt down on the mound when things did not go his way.

As a Rockies fan, I've seen DLR pitch a bunch, and often times, he still needs to be reminded in-game to focus on doing his job and not blowing his stack. One hopes that this is a lesson he's learned now. But it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of a high-dollar, multi-year deal, especially if it's to a big-market team.

I think he has a decent chance to go all Javier Vazquez on a team like the Yankees.

I agree with Titans on this 100%. I think Jorge has a lot of talent, but when he loses his way on the mound, he really melts down ( Sanchez of the Giants seems to have this same issue ), and it's more of a story when he gets his stuff together and finishes an inning than when he gets the hook. Don't get me wrong, I hope the Rox can keep him, but I also think he's benefitted from pitching for a team with relatively low pressure ( media-wise, and fan-wise--we're usually pretty content with the team when they do well, and the 'expectations' thing is only recent ), and I think in New York or Chicago he'd really struggle with what comes with the price tag and heavier media presence.

How 'bout the Brewers? They have a need, have shown a willingness to spend, and Doug Melvin may have a desire to right a wrong, when he traded De la Rosa for Tony Graffanino. Sign De la Rosa, trade Prince Fielder for another SP, and you might have an MLB-caliber rotation.