The Daily Prospectus

Third Base

by Joe Sheehan

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The Mets are just five games out of first place in the NL East, so I was going to do a column on exactly how this happened. My mother is a big Mets fan, bless her heart, and when I mentioned my intention, she about disowned me, mindful of the evil things I've done to the Padres over the past two seasons.

So, being the good son, I'll set the Amazins aside for now, and write about something else.

Dave Pease, BP's Webmaster and all-around good guy, sent me this after reading yesterday's Daily Prospectus:

[Scott] Rolen is the second best third baseman in the NL? Seen a Padres game lately, Joe?

He wasn't the only reader to react this way, as my contention that Rolen had established himself as the #2 man in the NL at his position--behind Chipper Jones--caught a number of people by surprise.

Let's get one objection out of the way: Albert Pujols hasn't played enough third base to be part of this discussion. He's had an amazing season, one of the all-time great rookie campaigns, and he is a huge part of the Cardinals' being wild-card leaders. But he's played just 423 2/3 innings at third base, which is just over a third of his total innings in the field this season. Part of that is manager's decision, but he does have a .748 Zone Rating, which would rank him about even with Aramis Ramirez as the second-worst glove man in the league. His DP-to-errors ratio--one quick'n'dirty way of evaluating a third baseman--is 17-to-10, below the benchmark of two-to-one. There are sample-size issues here, so this isn't the final word on Pujols's defense, but the performance analysis works against him right now.

Pujols may be the best third baseman in the league a year from now, but let's let him establish that he's a third baseman at all before comparing him to guys with 1,000 innings at the position.

That leaves the guy to whom Dave is referring, and the name that showed up most often in my inbox: Phil Nevin. Nevin is having a huge season, almost ten years after being the #1 overall pick in the 1992 draft. It's kind of hard to believe he was considered a prospect flop, acquired from the Angels for Andy Sheets, less than three years ago.

Nevin has clearly outhit Rolen this season, and overall since coming to the National League:

AB H 2B 3B HR BB SB CS AVG OBP SLG EqA EqR Nevin 1999 383 103 27 0 24 51 1 0 .269 .352 .527 .284 61 Rolen 1999 421 113 28 1 26 67 12 2 .268 .368 .525 .282 66

Nevin 2000 538 163 34 1 31 59 2 0 .303 .374 .543 .296 90 Rolen 2000 483 144 32 6 26 51 8 1 .298 .370 .551 .285 75

Nevin 2001 496 152 28 0 36 66 4 4 .306 .390 .581 .325 105 Rolen 2001 517 152 38 1 22 64 15 5 .294 .376 .499 .297 89

The two players raw numbers look fairly close in 1999 and 2000, but Nevin's home park--Qualcomm Stadium--is a much tougher place for hitters than Rolen's Veterans Stadium. At the plate and on the bases, Nevin has been about 15 runs per season better than Rolen for the past two years, or between one and one-and-a-half wins.


              Inn    PO     A    E   DP    Pct.     RF      ZR
Nevin 1999    533    36   130    3   13   .982    2.81    .847
Rolen 1999    962   112   225   14   21   .960    3.15    .869

Nevin 2000   1213    97   242   26   22   .929    2.52    .775
Rolen 2000   1080    89   245   10   14   .971    2.78    .818

Nevin 2001   1117    84   238   25   24   .928    2.60    .759
Rolen 2001   1222    95   303   10   20   .975    2.93    .830

The gap between these two players in the field is wide. Toss out range factor--which can be badly distorted by opportunities-and focus on Rolen's big edges on Nevin in fielding percentage (which very roughly measures efficiency) and zone rating (which is a good measurement of range). These advantages have been constant for two seasons. Rolen is one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, while Nevin is one of the worst.

People who see the Padres more than I do emphasize that Nevin doesn't get much help from Ryan Klesko, who they say handles throws poorly. That needs to be considered, although my observation is that Nevin has problems going to the line and has poor hands. I don't see Rolen enough to proffer any subjective opinion about him.

The issue is whether Rolen's advantage with the glove over Nevin is worth more than one win or so a season, which would pull him even with the Padre slugger. My judgment yesterday, without getting this deeply into it, was that it does. Today, having looked more closely, I'm even more convinced. Rolen is saving between 25 and 40 hits per season, some of them doubles, that Nevin is allowing. Linear weights--just to use one tool--calls 20 singles and five doubles 12.3 runs, which is the low estimate of the difference between the gloves of Nevin and Rolen, and would just about make up the gap between them at the plate.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the defensive metrics we have today, and this analysis demonstrates that shortcoming. That said, when the defensive metrics all point in the same direction, and they agree with the established reputation of the players, I'm inclined to agree with the conclusion.

So I stand by this: Scott Rolen is the second-best third baseman in the National League.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by clicking here.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Joe's other articles. You can contact Joe by clicking here