September 18, 2001

The Daily Prospectus

Fairness

by Joe Sheehan

The National League has a tremendous wild-card race going, with five teams separated by four games. Throw in the division leaders, and half the league is within 8 1/2 games of each other. That's a recipe for a great three weeks of baseball, perhaps comparable to the 1967 American League race, if we get lucky.

Unfortunately, these teams aren't battling on an even ground. The wildly unbalanced schedule means that teams fighting for the same goal--the wild card--face significantly divergent schedules down the stretch. Teams in the NL West are going to have a hard time keeping pace with their counterparts in the East and Central. Take a look at the road ahead for the five wild-card contenders:

Team       Weighted Opp. Pct.,
            Remaining Games

Dodgers          .544
Giants           .537
Phillies         .471
Cardinals        .465
Cubs             .464

The Dodgers and Giants have the toughest tasks ahead of them, with schedules that make the Cubs' and Cardinals' next three weeks look like a walk in the park. This is on top of playing a schedule that featured the AL's best division, the West:

Division        Non-Division Record

AL West              250-166
AL Central           193-219
AL East              183-229

The unbalanced schedule has a lot of good features. It builds rivalries, provides extended stretches of in-season big games, and means that a divisional champion has to have success within its division. It all but eliminates the possibility of a sub-.500 team reaching the playoffs.

But when you marry the unbalanced schedule to the wild card, you run the risk of rewarding a team whose record is distorted by an inferior quality of opponent. Look at the gap in those divisional records above. Can you really say that the Cardinals' 8-7 interleague record is much more impressive that the Dodgers' 6-9 mark? Those two games could be the difference between a playoff berth and a lot more time to spend on fantasy football.

MLB isn't going to reduce the number of teams in the playoffs, and an expansion to 32 teams--which would solve many of the current problems--isn't a viable option. That's especially true given the uncertainty created by last week's terrorist attacks; asking for more of the public's discretionary funds isn't a good idea when the specter of war looms. We're probably stuck with the current arrangement for at least a few more years.

Just remember that if the Dodgers fall a game short to the Cardinals this year, it doesn't make them "chokers," and it may not even make them the lesser team.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by clicking here.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Joe's other articles. You can contact Joe by clicking here