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Fantasy Beat: Hot Spot... (06/28)
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June 29, 2010 Fantasy BeatHot Spots: Catcher, Second Base, and Shortstop
The Changes Last week, a few Value Picks members were on notice, and one of them will be leaving us today. Reid Brignac has the benefit of playing with a great Tampa Bay team, but he also happens to be caught in a playing time crunch involving himself, Sean Rodriguez, and Jason Bartlett. With Bartlett back from the DL and Rodriguez still on fire, Brignac's playing time has dropped a bit. It has not helped that he has begun to regress towards the mean; his .272/.339/.385 line is a product of a .355 BABIP that has been steadily dropping for the last two weeks. Brignac does not flash enough power or walk often enough to make up for a 23% K%, so his AVG should fall out of fantasy consideration as that BABIP continues to tumble. The other two players are leaving on somewhat better terms. Mike Aviles got the callup again, as he regraduates from VP after more than a few ESPN fantasy owners picked him up this week. Those who did nab him again this week ended up with a nice .333/.368/.389 line. Aviles' value goes as his AVG/BABIP go, and right now he is doing well in those categories. If he is still available in all but your shallowest of mixed leagues, he is worth a look, if only for the consistent playing time and the one-category help. Neil Walker is continuing to impress in Pittsburgh, the brightest spot of the team's recent minor league callups. A .313/.278/.624 line, including his third homer of the season, ended in bad news however, as Walker collided with teammate Ryan Church on Friday and suffered a mild concussion. He has not returned to the field since and could be going on the 15-day DL, so for now we bid him farewell. On his return, make sure you snap him back up for second base in your leagues. Joining us on Value Picks is a familiar name. After Ian Desmond finally graduated from VP, he immediately went into a tailspin, batting just .170/.228/.264 since June 9. Much of the loss was in BABIP, and Desmond's speed should help in that department. However, the other concerns are still quite real. He still cannot draw a walk (3.9% unintentional BB%) and he still swings at quite a few bad pitches (34.3% swing% outside of the strike zone), so his plate discipline leaves much to be desired. Once he does get on base, he can provide a bit of assistance to your steals, upping his value slightly. Right now, Desmond is a solid buy-low option, especially for NL-league teams ravaged by the Troy Tulowitzki injury. Count on his AVG to climb back up a bit and let him reach a respectable level for a shortstop. Just as Walker is a temporary drop for VP due to injury, Bill Hall is a temporary VP pickup due to injury. Dustin Pedroia's recent foot injury may not require surgery, but he is still likely to miss six weeks after fouling a ball off his foot. Replacing Pedroia at second is Hall, who can play almost any position around the diamond but will find himself entrenched at second for a little while. This would not be noteworthy if it were not for the fact that Hall is undergoing a bit of a career revival. He has had a torrid June, batting .269/.387/.442 for the month, including a wicked 16% UIBB%. In the past, Hall has had a penchant for tearing up one month in particular, but this season his value has come from an increased walk rate and the best contact rate on pitches (76.4%) that he has had since his breakout 2005 season. Hall's downside is that his strikeout rate, currently at 28.3%, should remain high; PECOTA's weighted means projection has him striking out in 26.9% of his PA. This should keep his AVG low, but with consistent PT and a Boston lineup that suddenly looks loaded (Boston is among the league leaders in TAv as a team) and a ballpark friendly to hitters and Hall looks significantly better as a short-term option for AL-leagues. If his power sticks and the walk rate stay at around 10%, owners should be in for acceptable counting stats and a small bonus in steals. Skip Schumaker was one of the first players that made it into the Value Picks list, as he was a speedy second baseman that had value in the AVG department and batted in front of one of the best #3/#4 combinations in baseball in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. However, Schumaker started off a dreadful slump, hovering around a .210 AVG at the end of April and early May. However, he has made his regression known, continuing a steady climb that has brought his line all the way up to .261/.325/.337, a far cry from his .214/.306/.286 from May 4. For the month of June, Schumaker has actually hit .309/.351/.382, unsurprisingly similar to his 2008 and 2009 slash lines. With pitch contact rates quite similar to 2008 and 2009 as well, expect him to continue at the .290/.350/.360 pace to which Cardinals fans have been accustomed. The Incumbents With three changes this week, only three incumbents remain from last week's list. Of the three, Felipe Lopez remains in the most perilous of positions. Lopez had another poor week at the plate and continues to struggle with strikeouts and a low AVG. Though he has flashed better power this season (.143 ISO), he holds little to no value in terms of home runs. His best bet is playing time (which he has) and an AVG that will put him on base enough to score a lot at the top of the Cardinal's lineup. He is once again on notice this week. John Jaso continues a steady descent into normalcy after his ridiculous start this season. Still, given the way Jaso has avoided the strikeout this year (9.1% K%), his AVG is actually right on cue given an expected below average BABIP. And because of the huge number of walks (16.5%) drawn, his OBP is more than passable and should lead to plenty of runs, especially batting leadoff for the Rays. If anything, playing time and solid plate discipline should provide some above average production for a catcher in AL-only or deep mixed-leagues. Ronny Paulino has been the model of consistency, as his slash line has barely budged for the past three weeks. He continues to be undervalued by ESPN mixed leaguers, taken in only 7.6% of leagues despite an impressive .277 TAv. The AVG will fall at some point, but Paulino should make up for it with a small increase in power and walk rate back to his career levels. He remains a great NL-only option if he is still available.
Michael Jong is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Couple of questions...
(1) What do you think about just not having a catcher on my roster? I've got Olivo now who has done well enough (he's probably about the fifth catcher in our league), but he's averaging 13 points a week and I can probably do better than that just by picking up random starting pitchers. A couple of guys in our league have gone that route and I have a hard time saying it's a bad strategy.
(2) In terms of the overall pecking order at second base, where do you put Rickie Weeks?
OTS,
1) I sent a shout-out to my fellow VP writers, so we should be able to give you various insights on that question. You mentioned that a few others are doing the same thing. Do you think you can snag enough quality starters weekly with that extra slot to make up for Olivo's points given that you'll be competing with a few other teams for random starters? That would be my concern, though I've not used that strategy in a league.
2) Right now Weeks looks very good. Marc Normandin had him in his Tier 2 of 2B prior to the season, and at this point he is at the top of that particular tier. He's still behind the best at the position (Kinsler, Utley, Cano), but he's a better fantasy option than the rest given his power and potential help at steals.
Well, after checking the numbers, Olivo is the #4 catcher in our league right now in fantasy points. The problem, though, is that no catcher really does anything special, based on our scoring system. Olivo is #4 overall, and he is basically averaging 13 points for week for me now (the power is nice, but the strikeouts are killers).
Now, admittedly, there really aren't really any quality starters out there to pick up day-to-day in our league. With that said, though, the structure of our league is basically such that it's pretty hard for a pitcher to lose points. Even if a guy can go out, get five innings, give up six runs, lodge two or three strikeouts, and then get the loss, they'll still pick up four or five points. That's not much, of course, but with three of those a week and I'll exceed what I'm gaining on average with Olivo.
Besides, if possible, I'd like to get a few more pitchers on my roster. It's loaded on healthy pitchers, but there are quite a few decent options out there on the DL -- like J.A. Happ, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, and Felipe Paulino -- and I'd like to have the space to add some of those guys moving forward.
OTS--
I'm kind of familiar with your scoring system, and if it truly allows for voiding a position like this, I'd say it needs some tweaking.
I've seen guys punt categories before, but never an entire position; generally in roto-style fantasy, you lose far too much in counting numbers than you would gain in not having a drag on your ratios. Sometimes owners will cruise for maybe a week with an empty spot, waiting for a guy to come off the DL, but I've never seen them deliberately leave a spot empty for an extended amount of time (and I've been playing roto fantasy in multiple leagues for more than 15 years).
But since I haven't played in your scoring system, I can't say for sure if it's a bad strategy for your particular league. If other guys are doing it and remaining competitive (that is, outscoring you), then it's certainly worth a shot. And if it works, then I'd say your scoring system needs to be changed :)