You Could Look It Up: ... (06/08)
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June 8, 2010 BP UnfilteredStrasburg's Minor League PerformanceLast year's #1 pick, Stephen Strasburg. makes his hotly-anticipated debut tonight, after a dazzling run through the minor leagues. Just how dazzling is the topic for today. Here's his stat line, the way I look at it on my home computer, in real terms Stephen Strasburg Born 19880720 Age 21 Bats R Throws R Height 76 Weight 220 No DT, Real Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K GB% DERA W L SV H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 NERA PERA LFRA DLH DLR STF RAR 2010 Harrisburg__ Eas 5 5 22.0 13 4 0 6 27 68 1.64 3 1 0 5.3 0.0 2.5 11.0 3.68 1.78 3.15 -3 5 48 9 2010 Syracuse____ Int 6 6 33.3 18 4 1 7 38 64 1.08 4 1 0 4.9 0.3 1.9 10.3 1.35 1.51 3.49 -7 -1 64 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Minors 11 11 55.3 31 8 1 13 65 63 1.30 7 2 0 5.0 0.2 2.1 10.6 2.28 1.61 3.39 -10 4 58 23 and in translation Stephen Strasburg Born 19880720 Age 21 Bats R Throws R Height 76 Weight 220 Regular PDT Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K GB% DERA W L SV H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 NERA PERA LFRA DLH DLR STF RAR 2010 Harrisburg__ Eas 5 5 21.3 15 10 1 6 19 64 4.22 1 1 0 6.3 0.4 2.5 8.0 4.64 2.47 3.46 -3 5 37 5 2010 Syracuse____ Int 6 6 32.7 19 7 2 7 28 64 1.93 3 1 0 5.2 0.6 1.9 7.7 1.93 2.18 3.68 -7 -1 55 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Minors 11 11 54.0 34 17 3 13 47 63 2.83 4 2 0 5.7 0.5 2.2 7.8 3.00 2.29 3.61 -10 4 48 18 The first thing most stat-minded people look at on a pitcher are the K/BB rates. Strasburg's numbers are very good here, but far from unprecedented; plenty of people each year get 10 K/9 innings, especially in the low minors, plenty more put up BB/9 numbers in the ones. There's no reason for unusual excitement in those numbers. What is exciting and different are his hits allowed numbers. A rate around 5 is pretty much at the top of the historical charts, driven by a phenomenal BABIP - or, as I prefer to look at it, a negative 10 DLH. DLH stands for "delta hits"; it is simply the number of hits he is above or below the average BABIP for his team. I prefer having the mix of rate stat and playing time that delta-hits gives. Now, it is fashionable to refer to any non-zero DLHs as "luck" - good luck in the case of a negative DLH, bad luck in the case of a positive DLH - and it is true that DLH scores tend to regress towards zero. I'm not convinced that this is the case for Strasburg. A low DLH can also be the result of weak contact; that's the reason why knuckleballers regularly run up low BABIPs. There's evidence that minor league hitters were simply unable to make solid contact with Strasburg's pitches. The extra base hit rate is exceptional - among his 31 hits allowed, only 5 went for extra bases (three doubles, one triple, one homer). An average pitcher with 31 hits in the Eastern and International Leagues would give up nearly 7 doubles and 3 home runs, ending up with a little more than 10 extra base hits. Of 44 balls hit in the air, only 12 were classified as line drives (23 flies, 9 popups); a normal distribution of 44 balls in the air would have 16 line drives and only six pops. Given that he's been an extreme ground ball pitcher, the ratios per batted ball would be even more extreme. A direct result of the low number of hits allowed is a very low number of runs allowed and, to take it a step farther, a low number of expected runs allowed. The PERA category is Peripheral ERA; basically, it is True Runs, applied to the pitching stats. If we're using a league where we have play-by-play data, it uses the real atbats, doubles, triples, and stolen base data; if not, it will use the league hitting data to make a rough guess for those values. We're using it here to see how many runs we should have expected this pitcher to give up, given the number of hits and home runs he actually allowed (unlike SIERA, which would use expected hits and home runs). Strasburg's PERA is outstanding; the list of pitchers who could hold a 1.61 PERA for 50 innings, while working primarily as a starter, only gets 16 names; 16 players between 1980 and 2010, about one every other year. (real, untranslated performances) Name Age Year Tm Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K GB% DERA W L SV H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 NERA PERA LFRA DLH DLR Dennis_Burlingame 20 1989 DUR CRL 11 11 54.3 28 3 1 5 42 -1 0.50 4 0 0 4.6 0.2 0.8 7.0 1.33 1.21 4.01 -13 1 Dody_Rather 20 1985 ONE NYP 8 8 58.0 22 2 1 16 88 -1 0.31 8 0 0 3.4 0.2 2.5 13.7 0.78 1.24 2.77 -5 -3 Paul_Rigdon 23 1999 AKR EAS 8 7 50.0 20 5 2 10 25 -1 0.90 7 0 0 3.6 0.4 1.8 4.5 0.90 1.25 5.55 -22 -2 Charlie_Lea 23 1980 MEM SOU 9 9 75.0 34 7 0 21 54 -1 0.84 9 0 0 4.1 0.0 2.5 6.5 1.20 1.30 4.66 -23 -1 Steve_Schrenk 24 1993 BIR SOU 8 8 61.7 31 8 2 7 51 -1 1.17 5 1 0 4.5 0.3 1.0 7.4 1.61 1.33 3.93 -16 2 Josh_Beckett 21 2001 BRV FSL 13 12 65.7 32 9 0 15 101 -1 1.23 6 0 0 4.4 0.0 2.1 13.8 1.78 1.34 3.00 -4 3 Mark_Tranberg 25 1994 CLR FSL 9 8 63.3 33 1 0 11 41 -1 0.14 7 1 0 4.7 0.0 1.6 5.8 0.85 1.35 4.93 -16 -3 Frank_Castillo 19 1988 PEO MDW 9 8 51.0 25 4 1 10 58 -1 0.71 6 1 0 4.4 0.2 1.8 10.2 0.88 1.43 3.25 -7 -3 Rick_Ankiel 21 2001 JCY APL 14 14 87.7 42 13 1 18 158 -1 1.33 5 3 0 4.3 0.1 1.8 16.2 2.05 1.44 2.40 -5 6 Cole_Hamels 19 2003 LWD SAL 13 13 74.7 32 7 0 25 115 -1 0.84 6 1 0 3.9 0.0 3.0 13.9 0.96 1.47 3.25 -4 -4 Kyle_Nicholson 22 2008 GIA AZL 11 11 62.7 34 8 1 3 54 79 1.15 6 1 0 4.9 0.1 0.4 7.8 1.44 1.47 3.81 -17 0 Ted_Lilly 20 1996 YAK NWN 13 8 53.7 25 5 0 14 75 -1 0.84 4 0 0 4.2 0.0 2.3 12.6 1.51 1.47 3.33 -7 0 Brian_Meadows 27 2003 NAS PCL 9 8 51.0 32 8 2 0 40 -1 1.41 7 0 0 5.6 0.4 0.0 7.1 1.94 1.50 3.46 -11 3 Kevin_Slowey 22 2006 FTM FSL 14 14 89.0 52 10 2 9 99 41 1.01 4 2 0 5.3 0.2 0.9 10.0 1.92 1.51 3.72 -15 4 Brian_Barnes 22 1989 WPB FSL 7 7 50.0 25 4 0 16 67 -1 0.72 4 3 0 4.5 0.0 2.9 12.1 1.62 1.55 3.52 -4 0 Stephen_Strasburg 21 2010 multi 11 11 55.3 31 8 1 13 65 63 1.30 7 2 0 5.0 0.2 2.1 10.6 2.28 1.61 3.39 -10 4 That's everyone with a real PERA under 1.70 for at least 50 innings, either at one location or over multiple teams (Strasburg has worked at AA and AAA; Brian Barnes also pitched two games in AAA and one in short-season A as well, with a total PERA of 1.66, the only other player who managed the feat combining across multiple teams). While there are some good pitchers on the list - Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels, Ted Lilly - it is largely a collection of forgotten pitchers. Most accomplished the feat at a low level - Strasburg and Meadows are the only ones on the list who played at AAA. They are frequently older; the three who played at AA, besides Strasburg, were at least 23. Looking at the data in translation will help clear out some of the clutter. Again, the list is dominated by relievers, but Name Age Year Tm Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K GB% DERA W L SV H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 NERA PERA LFRA DLH DLR Cliff_Lee 31 2010 multi 8 8 58.7 51 21 1 3 45 40 3.54 5 2 0 8.1 0.2 0.5 7.1 3.22 2.00 3.32 -1 6 Pedro_Martinez 28 2000 BOS AL 29 29 207.7 134 42 14 26 229 48 1.82 20 3 0 5.8 0.6 1.1 9.9 1.78 2.08 2.82 -22 -2 Ubaldo_Jimenez 26 2010 COL NL 11 11 76.0 47 9 1 22 60 57 1.07 8 0 0 5.6 0.1 2.6 7.1 1.07 2.08 4.21 -13 -10 Greg_Maddux 28 1994 ATL NL 25 25 191.7 146 47 5 29 137 62 2.21 17 4 0 6.9 0.2 1.4 6.4 2.25 2.11 3.62 -19 -2 Greg_Maddux 29 1995 ATL NL 28 28 198.7 145 44 9 22 154 66 1.99 18 4 0 6.6 0.4 1.0 7.0 1.95 2.13 3.38 -24 -6 Pedro_Martinez 27 1999 BOS AL 31 29 203.3 170 50 8 30 245 48 2.21 19 4 0 7.5 0.4 1.3 10.8 2.17 2.17 2.23 17 2 Pedro_Martinez 29 2001 BOS AL 18 18 112.0 86 29 5 23 127 52 2.33 9 3 0 6.9 0.4 1.8 10.2 2.57 2.25 2.41 2 4 Roger_Clemens 27 1990 BOS AL 31 31 225.0 175 63 7 46 218 53 2.52 19 6 0 7.0 0.3 1.8 8.7 2.52 2.25 3.68 -5 -9 Stephen_Strasburg 21 2010 multi 11 11 54.0 34 17 3 13 47 64 2.83 4 2 0 5.7 0.5 2.2 7.8 3.00 2.29 3.59 -10 4 THAT is impressive company. Strasburg is the first minor league pitcher to sustain a translated 2.30 PERA over 50 innings but, interestingly enough, is only the third-best pitcher in 2010. Everyone is noticing Ubaldo Jimenez these days, but Cliff Lee's performance (which includes one rehab start in AAA Tacoma) has slid under people's radar. To get to the next minor league pitcher on the list, you have to go down to Name Age Year Tm Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K GB% DERA W L SV H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 NERA PERA LFRA DLH DLR Roger_Clemens 20 1983 FSL/EAS 11 11 75.3 59 17 4 12 76 -1 2.03 7 1 0 7.0 0.5 1.4 9.1 2.03 2.37 3.22 -3 -4 OK. We should be pretty excited.
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Fantasy Beat: PFM Update 4-1
Clay, your headings are all out of whack...
Didn't realize how much this editor hates whitespace at the start of the line. Fixed.