The Prospectus Hit List is back for its sixth season! This year, on the orders of Dr. James Andrews, I'll be publishing separate AL and NL editions, as well as publishing a combined ranking for those who wish to quibble over interleague superiority. As ever, we at BP are determined to put our best foot forward when it comes to predicting the upcoming season, and the foundation of our predictions is PECOTA. From the basic projections, our staff adjusts for expected playing time, strength of schedule, reliever leverage, and team defense to generate the Projected Standings, which have been updated frequently throughout the spring based upon the latest news and analysis. The Hit List Factors below are the Pythagenpat winning percentages derived from the latest runs scored and runs allowed projections, which are included in parentheses at the end of each team capsule. As you quibble with the rankings-I certainly have-remember that projections are not destiny; they're shorthand for a wider range of probabilities centered on the stated won-loss records. As proud as we are of our system's track record, we're eager to put the theoretical behind us and watch the season unfold. Play ball! | Rk | Team | | | Hit List Factor | | Comment |
1 |
Red Sox |
95-67 |
- |
.592 |
|
Defensive Posturing? New England worrywarts may fret about a lack of offense straight out of some Borgesian nightmare. Indeed, the winter's key arrivals-John Lackey, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron-tilt more towards run prevention, bolstering the rotation both directly and with a renewed commitment to defense borne of last year's sorry 28th-place ranking in Defensive Efficiency. As for the offense, relax chowdaheads, we've got the Sox projected for a True Average of .270 (second-best in the majors), not to mention the top record in all of baseball. (847 RS, 696 RA) |
2 |
Rays |
92-70 |
- |
.571 |
|
Rays-ed Hopes: The darlings of 2008 got a harsh lesson in come-back-to-earthiness last year, but this team is so stacked it should carry an NSFW tag. The addition of Wade Davis to the rotation, the continued development of David Price, and a bounceback from B.J. Upton all add to the upside achievable by this talented corps, headed by MVP candidate Evan Longoria and the lineup's Swiss Army knife, Ben Zobrist, and backed by an organizational depth which is simply unrivaled. (820 RS, 705 RA) |
3 |
Yankees |
91-71 |
- |
.566 |
|
No rest for the World Champions. Despite their efforts to get younger-punting Johnny Damon and Hideki Matusi for Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson-their success still hinges upon whether Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera can continue defying the aging process, not to mention whether Alex Rodriguez's hip remains intact. PECOTA sees the Yanks having their hands full battling the younger Rays and deeper Red Sox, and that's without accounting for their efforts to ward off the inevitable distractions surrounding The Jobacalypse. (859 RS, 749 RA) |
4 |
Athletics |
83-79 |
- |
.517 |
|
Averaging 75 wins since 2007, the A's make for a surprising choice to break out of the latest AL West scrum. Indeed, "breaking out" is a stretch given how tightly bunched around .500 its four teams are. Unless and until the likes of Chris Carter and Michael Taylor show up, the A's lineup is merely ordinary, a great distance removed from the walk-and-wallop days, but at least it's not dependent upon the wishful thinking of healthy seasons from Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. Headed by ace-in-the-making Brett Anderson and a roll of duct tape that will be stretched to accommodate both Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer, it's the rotation which will make or break Billy Beane's boys. (731 RS, 705 RA) |
5 |
Rangers |
83-79 |
- |
.512 |
|
Last year's upstarts won't sneak up on anyone this time around, and while the holdover talent is plenty good, what's really interesting here-particularly in light of last year's Elvis Andrus-led defensive improvement-is the daring remake of the rotation into one that can miss bats. Towards that end, not only have they brought in Rich Harden, but they've brought Colby Lewis back from Japan and C.J. Wilson forward from the bullpen. As with the A's, things could get very interesting if and when this team dips into its own reserves to give Neftali Feliz and Justin Smoak key roles. (800 RS, 780 RA) |
6 |
Mariners |
82-80 |
- |
.509 |
|
The additions of Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and even Milton Bradley have turned Jack Z's Mariners into the hip pick in the AL West. PECOTA sees the upgraded defense amply supporting the somewhat shaky rotation behind Lee and Felix Hernandez, but it's got plenty of concern for an offense where only the front four hitters-Ichirio Suzuki, Figgins, Casey Kotchman and Bradley-forecast for True Averages above .260, with Kotchman's .262 still a significant drag from the first base spot, to say nothing of the three hole. In the Pacific Northwest, 3-2 games may be the new grunge. (727 RS, 713 RA) |
7 |
Twins |
81-81 |
- |
.501 |
|
The loss of Joe Nathan to the surgeon's table notwithstanding, there's plenty of reason for optimism in the Twin Cities. Start with the new ballpark and its pricey-but-possible byproduct, the Joe Mauer contract extension. Move along to the upgrade to a real live middle infield (Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy) and the returns to health not only of rotation anchor Kevin Slowey but of potential staff ace Francisco Liriano (take the under on that projected 4.58 ERA) and you've got hopes for Central success that should remain undimmed even amid the dreaded closer-by-committee controversy. (815 RS, 813 RA) |
8 |
White Sox |
79-83 |
- |
.487 |
|
Fronted by Jake Peavy for a full season, the rotation should be a strength, but Ozzie Guillen can emphasize the running game until Juan Pierre's cow is waved home, and the White Sox will still live and die by the long ball. Judging by the forecast for a .417 SLG (10th in the league, and in a hitter's park), that means facing this lineup's utter mortality. Full years of Carlos Quentin, Gordan Beckham, and Alex Rios will help, but the Sox have too many low-OBP sinkholes, and the Mark Kotsay/Andruw Jones DH plan is a big bowl of wrong-even more so if Oz makes good on his threat to bat Kotsay third. (748 RS, 769 RA) |
9 |
Tigers |
79-83 |
- |
.486 |
|
Dontrelle Willis' startling overtures towards adequacy underscore the Tigers' biggest challenge: getting more than 1.7 WARP from a quintet on whom they're spending $65 million this year, almost half their payroll; they're left banking on Willis and Jeremy Bonderman while sinking the cost of Nate Robertson. Easier to understand is their bet on a pair of former Yankees, Austin Jackson and Johnny Damon, to upgrade the top two spots of their lineup, though the team's PECOTA forecast of a .259 True Average suggests that makeover may only scratch the surface. (762 RS, 784 RA) |
10 |
Indians |
79-83 |
- |
.485 |
|
With no Central team set to run break away from the pack, the Indians may wind up making a competitive bid even as they rebuild. Particularly so if Fausto Carmona can deliver upon a spring which has him back in his dazzling 2007 form, helping new manager Manny Acta avoid falling back upon the eminently hittable leftes which have pockmarked recent Cleveland rotations. The return to health of Grady Sizemore, a full season of Matt LaPorta, continued development of the already-impressive Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo-not to mention the anticipated mid-summer arrival of Carlos Santana-at least lift this team into the realm of sleeper, which is more than one might hope for after consecutive years of trading away Cy Young winners. (767 RS, 792 RA) |
11 |
Orioles |
78-84 |
- |
.480 |
|
While there's no guarantee that the Orioles can snap their string of 12 consecutive losing seasons, PECOTA thinks they can at least be within hailing distance of .500, and with Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz joining the growing cast of young studs from day one, they'll certainly be more interesting than in years past. Which isn't to say there won't be growing pains, or that other potential flaws-Brian Roberts' back, Garret Atkins' dying bat, Miguel Tejada's adaptation to the hot corner, not to mention a whole lot of average-at-best rotation filler (Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen)-won't manifest themselves. (797 RS, 831 RA) |
12 |
Angels |
78-84 |
- |
.477 |
|
Fallen Angels? Despite winning five division titles in six years, the Halos enter 2010 as AL West underdogs, at least where PECOTA is concerned. Blame the losses of John Lackey, Chone Figgins, and Vlad Guerrero, the latter two to division rivals. Much hinges upon the ability of Brandon Wood to make good on his once-blue chip status, the rebounds of Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Scott Kazmir, and the potential maturation of Jered Weaver into a ground-ball-generating staff leader. Don't put it past manager Mike Scioscia to squeeze extra wins out of this projection via his skillful bullpen management, but don't be surprised when this team doesn't dominate the division as in years past. (796 RS, 835 RA) |
13 |
Royals |
76-86 |
- |
.467 |
|
Zack Greinke and Billy Butler aside, the Royals have turned into a zombie flick; how else to explain the employment of undead retreads like Jason Kendall, Yuniesky Betancourt, Rick Ankiel, Jose Guillen, and Kyle Farnsworth, to say nothing of the sheer existential horror of the franchise's past decade and a half? Hope and faith here is best left to individual quests: another Cy Young-caliber season for Greinke, a rebound for Alex Gordon, continued success mining stathead wisdom for Brian Bannister, and so forth. (738 RS, 792 RA) |
14 |
Blue Jays |
72-90 |
- |
.440 |
|
The Doctor is Out: So the Blue Jays begin the post-Halladay/Ricciardi era facing the distinct possibility of being overtaken in the AL East by another flock of luckless birds, and this writer will have to find a new whipping boy beyond the embattled ex-GM. The lineup projects for plenty of power, particularly if Travis Snider can live up to his impact-player billing. But patience is in shorter supply, unless you're talking about the organization's ability to burn through young arms. Shaun Marcum's back from Tommy John surgery to be the Opening Day starter, but can the likes of Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow survive this franchise's arm-mangling tendency? (732 RS, 830 RA) |
The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Thursday.
 53 comments have been left for this article.
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Interesting that the A's come out as the best in the west. Most analysts see them as an also-ran to the other 3 competitors. Obviously, some of that is due to the Angels incumbency as division dominator, the sexiness of the Mariners offseason and the Rangers winning record last year. But, you look at the A's and you don't really see a contender. Maybe their upside isn't that of their rivals, but their downside isn't as low so it averages to a higher HLF?
Take the A's prediction with a HUGE boulder of salt. BP's models tend to overrate the A's and Indians and underrate the Twins and Angels. (all models have small biases, this just happens to be BP's)
Before you -1 this comment out of existence, please consider the A's are consistently picked at or near the top of the AL West every year at BP and have finished, on average 18 games out of 1st place the past 3 years.
...aaaaaaand like clockwork, there's the first accusation of bias for the Hit List this spring. It's a tradition almost as old as Opening Day.
I'm well aware that the system has been wrong about the A's - my best guess is that a good chunk of it has to do with optimistic projections (human-influenced playing time estimates included) for injury-vulnerable guys like Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, and the Duke. On the other side of the aisle, the link between the Angels' recent penchant for overachievement and Scioscia's skill at running a bullpen is one I've actually explored at length on the site and in the book.
But beyond that, I'd love for you to explain to our readers how our bias is actually BUILT INTO the model. Really, do enlighten us.
Jay -- I like the A's. I'm not accusing you of bias in the same way that one accuses a political reporter of bias.
But come on man, the A's have been overrated by Pecota every year since they started to suck (2007).
Rather than ask us to explain Pecota -- I don't understand it -- may I suggest you, and maybe Nate and Clay if you can get them, get under the hood and see if you can find that pesky loose valve that's causing that annoying "let's go Oakland" chant.
x10
"The A's have been 'overrated' in my estimation two years in a row! There must be something wrong with this system that I admittedly don't understand! Also, don't bother trying to explain it to me, just *fix* your system!"
"What? No - I'm 100% positive it couldn't be injuries, luck and random variance. Why do you ask?"
I don't think he was saying that there is a deliberate attempt by BP to inflate the A's (not sure if that's what you were saying, either). But if the system has been, as you admit, wrong about the A's, there must be some reason for it. One could call that reason a "bias" by PECOTA.
Maybe the problem is the charged word "bias".
Any projection system is skewed one way or another based on whatever elements it is measuring. For example, a system that looks at batting average will favor different teams than ones that favor on base percentage. The main reason for that is there's still no "perfect stat" or combination of states to _exactly_ evaluate players.
What we have are a bunch of approximation models for things like offensive production, defense and pitching and models try to estimate the "norm" but are rarely completely comprehensive. Close, perhaps, but not perfect.
Hi Jay. I love your work. I love BP. I've been a paying subscriber for as long as you've had them, and I cannot see a time in which I will not continue to subscribe.
I know you know all about statistical analyses, so this is nothing new to you.
However, ANY projection system will tend to have less than fully 100% non-skewed results.
Take the case of multiple regression. We apportion the sums of squares of the dependent variable among the independent variables in the model. The remainder is called "error" which is generally assumed to be randomly distributed. However, it hardly ever is.
"Error" truly means variance in the dependent variable that cannot be attributed to the independent variables you have built into the model. I presume PECOTA has many (and all of the most important) variables specified in your model. However, it cannot account for everything.
My best guess is this- the factors not in the model, such as manager, precision around injuries, "intangibles", "chemistry", etc.- all have small, usually inconsistent effects, but not zero effects. This results in "error" that most attribute to luck, randomness or noise, that could more accurately be portrayed as "unexpalined variance". Most of the time, unexplained variance, even in the best models, is not fully random.
I do not accuse BP of intentional bias. However, it is clear that PECOTA tends to highly rate some teams that make decisions in a manner consstent with BPs approach and tends to underrate some teams that take differing approaches. The reason is the "unexplained variance".
I love my A's. I love BP. And I love the Prospectus Hit List.
I'm terrified of having my heart broken. Again. A's as 4th best in the AL? I reeeeeallly want to believe it's true. I want to have a shot at avenging 2001. Slide, Giambi, slide!
You know, the A's were exactly six runs ahead of the Rangers when I ran these numbers. In today's depth chart update, they're four runs ahead. The differences between Seattle, Texas and Oakland are negligible relative to the potential for introducing subjective errors in estimating playing time, particularly in a system which is updated on a nearly daily basis. So if you want to pretend they're sixth so your hopes don't get too high, be my guest.
Out of curiosity, with the updates to PECOTA's methodology, the introduction to SIERA and TAv, did the Hit List calculations change at all?
The Hit List calculations are based upon what comes out of PECOTA - individual performances boiled down to wins and losses - not what goes into it. As far as I know, SIERA isn't part of it yet, though it may eventually be. True Average is still calculated the same as EqA was, so the level of its involvement in the Hit List, which is in making the third-order Pythag adjustments, isn't part of the preseason Hit List.
I have yet to find a really good reason to deviate from the same Hit List methodology I've been using for the past five years. A certain element of the readership would like the list to reflect more immediate changes in team fortunes, but the quick and dirty studies I did on shorter increments of team performance (past week, past month, etc.) showed that they're not particularly indicative of team strength, which is to say that they added no value whatsoever to the predictive power of the Pythag-based winner percentages which underly the calculation of the Hit List factor. I may try to do a more formal study towards that end, because the original one was done as a comment to a column.
Thanks for the insight Jay. I like the Hit List and wasn't suggesting a change was needed, just curious if the recent wave of changes at BP influenced the calculations at all.
PECOTA really, REALLY likes the A's rotation, even with the injury risks that Sheets and the Duke present, and it really does not like the Angles' rotation. Some of that may have to do with defense on balls in play, though I haven't run the numbers myself or checked with Clay to see where they're at, relatively speaking. I happen to think the system is a bit aggressive on Oakland and too conservative on the Angels, but that's why I don't deliver these goodies without comment.
I'm cool with that. At least I have a flash point so to speak now. If (big if, little if, whatever) the A's rotation begins to falter I can abandon the idea that they are a favorite or even a contender.