May 23, 2001
Aim For The Head
Barry Bonds and the Three True Outcomes
by Keith Woolner
This week's question was sent in by Andrea Trento:
We all saw Barry Bonds's ridiculous weekend, but lost in his home-run
barrage has been the fact that he has seven singles so far this year.
That's 22 home runs, 10 doubles, and seven singles. His isolated slugging is
.593, thanks to an .898 slugging percentage and a "pedestrian"
.305 batting average. As far as I know, the highest in history was Ruth in
1920: .847 slugging and .376 BA, giving him a .471 isolated slugging.
On a related note, who is the single season "true outcome" king?
It's hard not to pull for Rob Deer's memorable .179 campaign (89
walks, 175 strikeouts, and 25 home runs in 540 plate appearances for a .535
TO average), but it looks like Mark McGwire's slightly more memorable
1998 beats him out. Including hit-by-pitches as walks, Big Mac had 168
walks, 155 strikeouts, and 70 home runs in 681 plate appearances, a .562 TO
average! Bonds, incidentally, is at .537 right now. This is all just off
the top of my head; is there someone obscure I'm missing?
Thanks for writing, Andrea.
Andrea actually raised a couple of questions, first about isolated slugging
and how Bonds's amazing start measures up, and second about the leaders in
the tongue-in-cheek "Three True Outcomes" category.
Let's start with the isolated slugging question. Bonds is off to a truly
otherworldly start, posting an isolated slugging more than 100 points beyond
the all-time record for a single season. In fact, only two players have ever
posted more than a .400 ISO: Babe Ruth
and Mark McGwire combined to
do it seven times. Bonds is topping Ruth's all time ISO mark by more than
25% so far this season. Here's a list of the top seasons by isolated
slugging (300 at-bat minimum):
Year Player Team AB H TB AVG SLG ISO
1920 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 458 172 388 .376 .847 .472
1921 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 540 204 457 .378 .846 .469
1998 Mark McGwire SLN-NL 509 152 383 .299 .752 .454
1996 Mark McGwire OAK-AL 423 132 309 .312 .730 .418
1999 Mark McGwire SLN-NL 521 145 363 .278 .697 .418
1927 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 540 192 417 .356 .772 .417
1995 Mark McGwire OAK-AL 317 87 217 .274 .685 .410
1927 Lou Gehrig NYA-AL 584 218 447 .373 .765 .392
1928 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 536 173 380 .323 .709 .386
1932 Jimmie Foxx PHA-AL 585 213 438 .364 .749 .385
1994 Jeff Bagwell HOU-NL 400 147 300 .368 .750 .383
2000 Barry Bonds SFN-NL 480 147 330 .306 .688 .381
1994 Frank Thomas CHA-AL 399 141 291 .353 .729 .376
1995 Albert Belle CLE-AL 546 173 377 .317 .690 .374
1930 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 518 186 379 .359 .732 .373
1997 Mark McGwire 2TM 540 148 349 .274 .646 .372
1923 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 522 205 399 .393 .764 .372
1961 Mickey Mantle NYA-AL 514 163 353 .317 .687 .370
1938 Hank Greenberg DET-AL 556 175 380 .315 .683 .369
1930 Hack Wilson CHN-NL 585 208 423 .356 .723 .368
1926 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 495 184 365 .372 .737 .366
1924 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 529 200 391 .378 .739 .361
1922 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 406 128 273 .315 .672 .357
1994 Albert Belle CLE-AL 412 147 294 .357 .714 .357
1938 Jimmie Foxx BOS-AL 565 197 398 .349 .704 .356
1999 Barry Bonds SFN-NL 355 93 219 .262 .617 .355
1994 Kevin Mitchell CIN-NL 310 101 211 .326 .681 .355
1997 Larry Walker COL-NL 568 208 409 .366 .720 .354
1925 Rogers Hornsby SLN-NL 504 203 381 .403 .756 .353
1956 Mickey Mantle NYA-AL 533 188 376 .353 .705 .353
1929 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 499 172 348 .345 .697 .353
1994 Ken Griffey Jr. SEA-AL 433 140 292 .323 .674 .351
1961 Roger Maris NYA-AL 590 159 366 .269 .620 .351
Another way to look at the uniqueness of Bonds's season thus far is to look
at his ISO/AVG ratio, which is equivalent to looking at how many extra bases
he's averaging per hit. Bonds's 1.944 is 28% higher than the all-time best
performance in this category. Bonds's past two seasons are also among the
top seasons by this measure, including the best ever by someone not named
McGwire.
Maybe it's not so surprising that Bonds, of all players in the game today,
is setting such a phenomenal pace. Perhaps more interestingly, well over
half the top seasons ever have occurred since 1990, giving another
indication of how much the offensive game has changed in recent years.
Here's the list (300+ AB minimum)
Year Name Team AB H TB AVG SLG ISO XB/H
1998 Mark McGwire SLN-NL 509 152 383 .299 .752 .454 1.520
1999 Mark McGwire SLN-NL 521 145 363 .278 .697 .418 1.503
1995 Mark McGwire OAK-AL 317 87 217 .274 .685 .410 1.494
1997 Mark McGwire 2TM 540 148 349 .274 .646 .372 1.358
1999 Barry Bonds SFN-NL 355 93 219 .262 .617 .355 1.355
1973 Dave Kingman SFN-NL 305 62 146 .203 .479 .275 1.355
1996 Mark McGwire OAK-AL 423 132 309 .312 .730 .418 1.341
1961 Roger Maris NYA-AL 590 159 366 .269 .620 .351 1.302
1994 Matt Williams SFN-NL 445 119 270 .267 .607 .339 1.269
1920 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 458 172 388 .376 .847 .472 1.256
1962 Harmon Killebrew MIN-AL 552 134 301 .243 .545 .303 1.246
2000 Barry Bonds SFN-NL 480 147 330 .306 .688 .381 1.245
1921 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 540 204 457 .378 .846 .469 1.240
1979 Mike Schmidt PHI-NL 541 137 305 .253 .564 .311 1.226
1992 Rob Deer DET-AL 393 97 215 .247 .547 .300 1.216
1969 Reggie Jackson OAK-AL 549 151 334 .275 .608 .333 1.212
1979 Gorman Thomas MIL-AL 557 136 300 .244 .539 .294 1.206
1999 Sammy Sosa CHN-NL 625 180 397 .288 .635 .347 1.206
1928 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 536 173 380 .323 .709 .386 1.197
1998 Greg Vaughn SDN-NL 573 156 342 .272 .597 .325 1.192
1998 Jose Canseco TOR-AL 583 138 302 .237 .518 .281 1.188
1992 Mark McGwire OAK-AL 467 125 273 .268 .585 .317 1.184
1989 Kevin Mitchell SFN-NL 543 158 345 .291 .635 .344 1.184
1946 Hank Greenberg DET-AL 523 145 316 .277 .604 .327 1.179
1995 Albert Belle CLE-AL 546 173 377 .317 .690 .374 1.179
1980 Mike Schmidt PHI-NL 548 157 342 .286 .624 .338 1.178
1999 Greg Vaughn CIN-NL 550 135 294 .245 .535 .289 1.178
1927 Babe Ruth NYA-AL 540 192 417 .356 .772 .417 1.172
1938 Hank Greenberg DET-AL 556 175 380 .315 .683 .369 1.171
1995 Paul Sorrento CLE-AL 323 76 165 .235 .511 .276 1.171
1950 Ralph Kiner PIT-NL 547 149 323 .272 .590 .318 1.168
1961 Mickey Mantle NYA-AL 514 163 353 .317 .687 .370 1.166
1995 Jay Buhner SEA-AL 470 123 266 .262 .566 .304 1.163
1991 Rob Deer DET-AL 448 80 173 .179 .386 .208 1.163
1973 Willie Stargell PIT-NL 522 156 337 .299 .646 .347 1.160
1963 Harmon Killebrew MIN-AL 515 133 286 .258 .555 .297 1.150
1998 Ken Griffey Jr. SEA-AL 633 180 387 .284 .611 .327 1.150
1991 Sam Horn BAL-AL 317 74 159 .233 .502 .268 1.149
1995 Mickey Tettleton TEX-AL 429 102 219 .238 .510 .273 1.147
1996 Brady Anderson BAL-AL 579 172 369 .297 .637 .340 1.145
1957 Duke Snider BRO-NL 508 139 298 .274 .587 .313 1.144
The Three True Outcome questions was addressed by Rany Jazayerli
during
his brief abduction by the Russ Branyan Fan Club last year, so let me
summarize by saying that Bonds's .537 TTO% would be the third highest ever
by a batting qualifier.
To take a slightly different look on things, Bonds currently has a pretty
small differential between his HR total (23) and his strikeout total (31).
If Bonds were to continue popping homers like he has been doing lately, and
were to finish with more home runs than strikeouts, then he'd almost
certainly set a new TTO% record for a batter with more HR than SO. Only four
batters have ever managed a .250 TTO% with more HR than SO (300+ PA
minimum), and Bonds would be in pretty elite company if he were to join
them:
Year Name Team PA HR BB SO TTO TTO%
1941 Ted Williams BOS-AL 604 37 145 27 209 .346
1955 Ted Williams BOS-AL 417 28 91 24 143 .343
1950 Ted Williams BOS-AL 416 28 82 21 131 .315
1936 Lou Gehrig NYA-AL 716 49 130 46 225 .314
1929 Mel Ott NY1-NL 664 42 113 38 193 .291
1934 Lou Gehrig NYA-AL 690 49 109 31 189 .274
1948 Johnny Mize NY1-NL 658 40 94 37 171 .260
1950 Johnny Mize NYA-AL 305 25 29 24 78 .256
1947 Johnny Mike NY1-NL 664 51 74 42 167 .252
Bonds would also have a shot at the highest TTO% of any player whose lowest
TTO total wasn't home runs (either BB or SO). There have been several free
swingers who homered more often than they walked, and still managed a .350
TTO% or higher. They're not quite as impressive as the group above, but
there are at least a couple of MVP winners in the crowd.
Year Name Team PA HR BB SO TTO TTO_R
1975 Dave Kingman NYN-NL 542 36 34 153 223 .411
1976 Dave Kingman NYN-NL 510 37 28 135 200 .392
1996 Sammy Sosa CHN-NL 541 40 34 134 208 .384
1979 Dave Kingman CHN-NL 589 48 45 131 224 .380
2000 Glenallen Hill 2TM 321 27 19 76 122 .380
1983 Jesse Barfield TOR-AL 419 27 22 110 159 .379
1986 Cory Snyder CLE-AL 432 24 16 123 163 .377
1995 Craig Paquette OAK-AL 301 13 12 88 113 .375
1987 Cory Snyder CLE-AL 615 33 31 166 230 .374
2000 Geoff Jenkins MIL-NL 564 34 33 135 202 .358
2000 Tyler Houston MIL-NL 301 18 17 72 107 .355
1996 Andres Galarraga COL-NL 691 47 40 157 244 .353
1992 Juan Gonzalez TEX-AL 632 43 35 143 221 .350
Keith Woolner is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Contact him by
clicking here.
Keith Woolner is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Keith's other articles.
You can contact Keith by clicking here