Fantasy Beat: Hot Spot... (03/12)
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March 15, 2010 Fantasy BeatHot Spots: First Base, Third Base, and Designated Hitter
* = Range stats not available, or from alternate position
Losing Aramis Ramirez for two months in 2009 to a dislocated shoulder has made his backup an important consideration. Among MLB’s most consistently productive 3Bs, Ramirez has slugged over .500 for six straight years, though his SLG has dropped each one of those years. Consistent contact rates in the mid-eighties and a steady 8% walk rate make him a threat to hit .300, and he should beat those PECOTA projections if he stays healthy. If he goes down, however, the Cubs will turn to Chad Tracy, as HEATER’s Rob McQuown sees Jeff Baker shifting over to share time with Mike Fontenot at 2B. Tracy’s career-worst 2009 capped off several years of sliding production, making him well-suited for a backup, not full-time, work. 2009 offers some hope for a Tracy rebound: his 9.0 BB% and 14.8 K% were both at or near career highs, while his BABIP and H% were career lows. But his peaking FB% isn’t good, since he hasn’t turned 10% of those flies into longballs since 2005. He’s also become a strict offspeed hitter; anything fast or breaking befuddles him. Diminishing skills, PECOTA’s pessimism at a rebound and a lack of power make Tracy a poor play at 3B; only another Ramirez injury will give him the PT to deliver any appreciable value. And while the increasingly fragile Ramirez isn’t the guy you knew in 2004, he’s still a good second-tier mixed-league option.
* = Range stats not available, or from alternate position
Low-cost, high-OBP stalwarts Dan Johnson and Scott Hatteberg have carried the Moneyball torch since Jason Giambi, the last power-hitting 1B in Oakland, left in 2001. Until power-hitting 1B of the future Chris Carter is ready, Melissa Lockard of HEATER sees a panoply of talent keeping the spot warm for him. The job initially belongs to Daric Barton, another Moneyball hitter, as you can see from the solid K% and BB% skills in his profile, along with a TB/H and PECOTA-projected SLG more suited to a MIF. Eric Chavez can chip in, but he’s an overpaid part-timer who hasn’t surpassed .800 OPS since 2005. And playing time is an issue for Landon Powell, who won’t see enough time at 1B and C to deliver value on his power-patience combination. Jake Fox is the best power option, making up for his impatience with good contact rates and explosive TB/H results. The same versatility that could keep him from taking over 1B entirely makes him a sweet fantasy choice—he might even end up qualifying behind the plate. With so many places to fit, he could claw his way to even more than the 50% playing time you see here. PECOTA sees him crushing 30 HR with full-time action, making him a great late-round draft pick.
* = Range stats not available, or from alternate position
Health news led to a shift in Cleveland’s1B/DH situation this week, as Russell Branyan is suffering from a recurrence of back problems and Travis Hafner has looked strong after coming back from three seasons lost to a bad shoulder. Branyan broke out of a platoon to play nearly full time in 2009, leading to a career-high 31 HRs—and a season cut short due to a herniated disc. His TTO style will produce good OPS numbers, but only if he plays, something he has yet to do this season, which you can see from his Spring Training stats above. HEATER’s Brian La Shier expects his fill-in to be Matt LaPorta, whose relatively rosy PECOTA projection comes from his .291/.384/.557 minor-league line and 80% contact rate. He’ll wind up as the long-term 1B, but LaPorta’s a better fantasy play at OF, while NRI Shelley Duncan is a long shot to even make the Cleveland squad, let alone your fantasy roster. As Branyan’s expected DH playing time decreased, Hafner has looked healthier. He’s undervalued due to his diminished production between 2007-9, but that could all come from his injured shoulder, though it wasn’t identified until 2008. Pronk’s monster 2005-6 came with elevated HR/FB ratios that fell by half in 2007, indicating something more seriously wrong than just statistical correction. After returning from surgery-related soreness in 2009, Hafner hit 318/.423/659 in his first 52 ABs, then hit .264/.337/.416 the rest of the way. La Shier and I agree that this could indicate a second-half slump in 2010 as much as PECOTA’s predicted return to mediocrity. This is worrisome, but 2009 had signs that he could beat that projection, as Hafner offset his worst walk rate since 2003 with a career-best 19.8 K% while also lifting his HR, FB, and TB/H rates. His downside is real, but it could drive his price low enough for you to bet on a possible rebound, while Branyan needs to show he’s healthy before you risk anything more than a late-round $1 flyer on him.
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