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HOUSTON ASTROS
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Acquired RHP Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for SS-R Luis Bryan, RHP Robert Bono, and a PTBNL (Rule 5 pick 3B-L Jorge Jimenez). [12/9]
Signed 3B-R Pedro Feliz to a one-year, $4.5 million contract. [12/10]
Signed RHP Brandon Lyon to a three-year, $15 million contract. [12/12]
Signed LHP Gustavo Chacin and OF-R Jason Michaels to minor-league contracts. [12/14]

I don’t mind what the Astros gave up to get Lindstrom, since let’s face it, “Astros prospect” borders on oxymoronic. The problem is whether or not this is sort of baseball’s answer to George Allen with the Potomac Drainage Basin Persons in the ’70s, dealing away draft picks willy-nilly for players to fuel increasingly desperate playoff bids. Lyon’s deal is a modest disaster, given his peripheral data’s all-around ugliness and the expense, but this is Ed Wade the Munificent we’re talking about; there isn’t a relief pitcher in baseball who doesn’t want a shot at putting his agent in front of Wade when the general manager starts scratching his arms and wondering what Rheal Cormier‘s going for these days, cuz he just has to, has to, has to have a quick injection of relief. With a few hundred pushing their wares any given winter, Wade can afford to be spendy and non-discriminating (with other people’s money, of course), producing these kinds of results.

That’s not Lindstrom’s fault, of course, he only just got here without contributing to the decision or exploiting another adult’s foibles. Whether he’ll thrive in Corporate Fruit Beverage Ballpark in Houston is a different matter, of course. Four career innings over a three-year career tells us squat, and this year’s injury-afflicted performance record isn’t a ton of help. There’s something to be said about the state of pitching today when a right-handed closer can’t even manage an inning per appearance on his career, having not done it in a single season during his three-year spin as a Fish. However hard he throws, he’s never been especially unhittable, he’s wild, and now he’s leaving a friendly park for a venue that more reliably punishes mistakes. The cost in terms of talent won’t really haunt the Astros, and certainly won’t haunt a borrowed-time GM like Wade, but the quandary is that they’ve now noisily “fixed” their bullpen by acquiring a set-up man coming off of an outlandishly successful season and a fragile non-dominant “saves guy.” Sure, it’s only money, but if these are the fixes, what does it say about the Astros’ ambitions, beyond their easy thwarting?

As for the decision to sign Feliz, it’s a selection both mortifying and amusing. On the one hand, this seems like a signing motivated by a desire to fulfill the basic requirement to field a third baseman because the rules sort of insist on eight defenders, but if you really want Pedro Feliz, why not wait? The market for an inoffensive glove man only worth a one-year investment isn’t about to get away from you, and indeed, waiting to see how things shape up could have saved you a few million, especially when you’re talking about such a modest offensive contributor. On the other hand, I wonder if the Phillies wouldn’t have been better off getting him to stick around with a deal this short than throwing four times as much cash at Placido Polanco for three times the length.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Signed RHP LaTroy Hawkins to a two-year, $7.5 million contract. [12/10]
Non-tendered RHP Mark DiFelice and Seth McClung, and C-R Mike Rivera. [12/12]
Signed LHP Randy Wolf to a three-year, $27.35 million contract, with a $10 million club option for 2013; re-signed INF-L Craig Counsell to a one-year, $2.1 million contract. [12/14]
Signed LHP A.J. Murray and re-signed RHP Mark DiFelice to minor-league contracts. [12/15]

To some extent, I was so impressed by Ken Funck‘s exercise on what this might do for the Brewers that I wasn’t initially sure what to add, since I think he did an outstanding job of running through the scenario. I like the idea of stapling Hawkins into the eighth inning ahead of Trevor Hoffman in no small part because his track record for pitching effectively is significantly longer than the likes of Mark DiFelice (even allowing for the fact that DiFelice is already done for the year with shoulder surgery). Life isn’t so simple that we get to treat these as so many Legos, of course, so I think of this as having a good bit of additive power: having Hawkins propels Todd Coffey and Mitch Stetter into earlier in-game roles, which doesn’t simply secure the eighth, it gives additional hope in the sixth and seventh. Add in the eventual return of David Riske from TJS at some point in-season, plus the presence of Carlos Villanueva for middle relief and mop-up chores, and that really doesn’t sound like an all-bad relief corps.

Of course, staffing and fixing a bullpen is to baseball what whittling used to be for hobbies: it’s a year-round occupation. The larger question by far is whether or not Randy Wolf gives the team the one-two punch it needs atop the rotation in concert with Yovani Gallardo. It’s not the least-probable solution, because at this rate Wolf’s been proving doubters (myself included) wrong ever since he was traded to Houston for the stretch run in 2008. The three-year deal isn’t cheap, but it also isn’t quite like a pre-crash contract for the Carl Pavanos or the Jason Schmidts of the world. He appears to be healthy, he passed a physical, and last year’s performance was exceptional, with a .565 SNWP that surpassed Gallardo’s .551.

That’s not the standard in play, however, it’s about fixing a rotation that was busted across four different non-Gallardo slots. Jeff Suppan (.420), Dave Bush (.416), and Manny Parra (.379) are all still in play for roles in that rotation, despite having failed so badly last year. At least Bush can point to injuries; Suppan’s failures go back to his minting as a Brewer, while Parra’s post-demotion performance (five quality starts in 14) isn’t exactly inspiring. Their 2008 work shouldn’t inspire any faith in the Regression Fairy’s magic wand to turn back the clock: Bush’s SNWP was .504, Parra’s .479, and Suppan was at .457. That’s the sort of work that ought to comprise part of your list for the fourth and fifth slots, not your first-rank choices for three slots.

Now, the Brewers are understandably handicapped by Suppan’s deal, so they can’t just conjure up a rotation. That said, potentially blowing their bankroll entirely on Wolf could end up being as crippling next year as it’s purportedly encouraging in mid-December. At the very least, they need to fix one of the three and make him into an above-average starter to make a real run at the top of the division, especially when there’s a pretty large chance that Carlos Gomez and Alcides Escobar contribute to take the offense down a notch or two. Maybe this encourages a deal that sends Mat Gamel somewhere for a starting pitcher with upside, but unless it’s someone in the last year of his deal, and many of the best choices from among that seem almost perversely planted in the Brewers’ division (Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo with the Reds, for example).

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BillJohnson
12/16
One thing you didn't mention about the Wolf acquisition, to my surprise, is the possibility -- I would say likelihood -- that it was done specifically to target the Cardinals' perceived vulnerability to left-handed starting pitching. (I say "perceived" because last year, the record didn't bear that vulnerability out quite as emphatically as it had in the past.) Sometimes a team makes moves not to improve themselves in the abstract, but so they can beat somebody in their own division who's standing between them and the division title. I suspect there was an element of that in play here -- which is not to say that it was a good idea.
crperry13
12/16
Gosh, if I didn't know any better, I'd make the assumption that you don't think very highly of Ed Wade. Good thing I know better!

Seriously though, I don't like the Lyon signing - at all. But if he's SO bad, why were there so many teams (reportedly) competing against the Astros to sign him?
gwguest
12/16
Sadly, Mr. Wade isn't the only inept GM dazzled by a few flashes of "WOW" that they saw on YouTube. Some of the other teams are either just a bit slower, cheaper or lost his agent's number.
rawagman
12/16
I don't think Christina - or any of the other BP writers - are contending that Lyon sucks. What they are saying, is that he is not the type of player to rightfully engender a contract of the magnitude that he received. Moreover, if we are already handing out $15M for Lyon over 3 years, the Astros are not the team to do that, in light of their realistic playoff aspirations and by how much a player with the expected contributions of a Brandon Lyon will further those aspirations.
If Lyon was signed by, say the Cardinals, for a contract in the neighbourhood of 2 years and $7M, the singing would not have been so derided.
sunpar
12/16
I know Cardinals fans are loyal, but I had no idea they'd be singing over Brandon Lyon.
rawagman
12/16
Not a Cardinals fan at all. Just used a team in the same division who might have more use for Lyon
louisma
12/17
I see what you did there.
crperry13
12/16
I don't bother playing "What If" (your last sentence), but one can make the case that after a great bullpen in 2008, the Astros bullpen was metaphorically obliterated by injuries and suckitude.

For the Astros, if they think they can add a reliable 70-80 inning young reliever for 3 straight years who won't be worth negative runs, it's probably worth it to them to overpay. That's not a GOOD reason to sign Lyon, but it is A reason...

Lyon had a WXRL of 1.931 in 2009. If you add up the WXRL's of ALL of the Astros bullpen (full-time relievers, so no Ortiz or Paulino), not including closers Valverde and Hawkins, they TOTAL up to a WXRL of 1.690!!

So the Astros overpaid, but by a simple "expected wins over replacement" comparison, Lyon has more expected-wins value than the entire 2010 Astros bullpen! Yikes.
crperry13
12/16
Amusing Follow-Up: The Astros' 3rd best reliever, Jeff Fulchino, posted a WXRL of almost 1.2. Take away Houston's top 3 relievers and Lyon is about 4 times more effective than the remainder of the entire bullpen, using that particular stat.

Sad, hilarious, and baffling all at the same time.
bsolow
12/16
Not that baffling -- if you're a horrible team that is behind in a lot of games, you don't have a whole lot of high leverage situations to use your 4-7 relievers in. If the number of high leverage situations is limited, the team allocates them to the top relievers. Given that WXRL is a leverage-based statistic, you don't expect your bottom guys to get much WXRL based on the lack of leverage on top of the lack of talent. That's compounded by how awful the majority of the Astros rotation was, which (I'm guessing) put them behind early in games such that most of the relievers didn't even have a chance to blow the high leverage situations.
DanoooME
12/16
If the Feliz and Lyon contracts were signed the same day, I'd believe the two were mixed up and they each signed the wrong one. Even though it doesn't make sense to sign Feliz to a 3/$15M deal, it makes more sense than signing Lyon to the same deal.