| Rk |
Team |
Overall W-L
|
Week W-L
|
Hit List Factor
|
Trend
|
Comment |
1
|
Red Sox |
89-59
|
4-3
|
.624
|
|
Daisuke Matsuzaka punted away his lead in rookie VORP, with Brian Bannister set to finish first thanks to Jeremy Guthrie‘s injury. If anyone in Boston is reading this, could you please let Dice-K have a start or two off before the playoffs begin? In the three starts before last night’s short outing against NY, Dice-K allowed over three homers per nine and recorded just
4.4 K/9, and his fastball lacked the life and movement it had earlier in the year. The Sox and Yanks are playing, but there are other games to watch.
|
2
|
Yankees |
84-63
|
6-1
|
.589
|
|
Alex Rodriguez didn’t want voters to have to think too hard about their awards this fall, so he hit seven homers in five games to ease their MVP decision. This year’s VORP leader has hit .388/.487/.806 since August 15 in-get this A-Rod haters-games that matter! Roger Clemens is apparently doing whatever he wants and then telling the Yankees about it afterward. Even if NY sweeps Boston, they have their work cut out for them to take the division, though an ALCS matchup looks more favorable for the Yanks by the day.
|
3
|
Mets |
83-63
|
5-2
|
.568
|
|
After this series with Philadelphia concludes, the Mets,
5.5 up on Philly to start the day, finish the season with games against Washington, Florida, Washington, one versus St. Louis, then Florida again. David Wright hit .286/.500/1.000 in his last five games, adding to his already-stellar MVP candidacy; he’s a homer shy of the 30/30 club. Tom Glavine leads Mets pitchers in VORP, and could finish the year with his fourth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA.
|
4
|
Indians |
86-61
|
5-2
|
.560
|
|
The Indians find themselves in the same situation as the Red Sox: they’re
5.5 games up on second place, and if all else fails, they still have a great chance at the Wild Card. They’re currently at 98% odds to make the playoffs, and their schedule is pretty light from here on out. Besides a three-game series against Detroit, the fading Mariners are the next most difficult opponent for the year. Keep an eye on C.C. Sabathia as he fights for his first Cy Young Award in a stacked American League.
|
5
|
Angels |
86-61
|
3-4
|
.560
|
|
Vladimir Guerrero is trying to pace himself for the playoffs, although the Angels could afford to give him extended rest in light of the Mariners’ recent plunge. Fighting for home field advantage is the focus now; the Halos have played .500 ball on the road (37-36), where they have eight games remaining on a soft schedule.
|
6
|
Tigers |
81-67
|
6-2
|
.544
|
|
Despite going 8-2 in their last 10 contests, the Tigers only picked up one game on the Indians and none on the Yankees. Jeremy Bonderman and Joel Zumaya both go down with injuries, with Bonderman out for the rest of 2007. Curtis Granderson becomes a member of the 20-20-20-20 club, joining Willie Mays and Frank Schulte.
|
7
|
Dodgers |
78-69
|
4-3
|
.543
|
|
The Dodgers are coming on strong, but still sit 1.5 back of San Diego and 4.5 back of Arizona for a playoff spot. The Dodgers’ tough schedule might keep them from the playoffs, with five games left against the D’backs and seven versus the Rox. James Loney seems to have come into his own, hitting .330/.377/.530 for the season and .462/.462/.808 over the past week.
|
8
|
Rockies |
76-71
|
4-4
|
.533
|
|
Since Colorado hasn’t factored directly into the NL West race like the D’backs, Padres, and Dodgers, you haven’t read as much about them as they deserve. Their .534 third-order winning percentage is second-best in the West, and they still have a 12% chance at the playoffs as of today’s publication. The Rox have hit .276/.351/.428 as a unit while allowing opponents about the same-minus about 20 points of OBP. The team hits LHP and RHP about the same, and the defense (ninth in the majors in defensive efficiency) has helped the pitchers significantly.
|
9
|
Padres |
79-67
|
3-4
|
.531
|
|
The Wild Card leaders have been unable to open up a big lead, but Khalil Greene homered to put a band-aid on some of those problems last night. Despite Greene’s .293 OBP, he has
19.9 VORP, 14th amongst shortstops in the majors; combine that VORP with his defense-among the best in the league-and you have yourself an above-average player with a sub-.300 OBP, a rare occurrence. The Friars need to open some space in their series against the Giants and Pirates in case Milwaukee or the Rox turn into a problem.
|
10
|
Phillies |
78-69
|
5-3
|
.531
|
|
Philly sits 1.5 back of the Pads for the Wild Card with a decent schedule in front of them. Games with NY, St. Louis, and Atlanta won’t help, but they do have seven games left against the Nats. Chase Utley hit well immediately after coming off the DL, but struggled the past week with a .286/.375/.393 line. They will need MVP-candidate Utley back in order to make the playoffs and to succeed once there; Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Kyle Lohse aren’t the most imposing playoff rotation.
|
11
|
Braves |
75-72
|
4-3
|
.531
|
|
Despite adding Mark Teixeira and bulking up for the stretch, the Braves have fallen 8.5 back of the Mets and into third place out east; they’re down to a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs. The stars will need to align perfectly for Atlanta to avoid two straight years without a playoff berth for the first time since eight straight fruitless campaigns from 1983 to 1990. Teixeira certainly hasn’t been the problem: he’s hit .323/.407/.601 in his NL debut.
|
12
|
Blue Jays |
73-74
|
2-6
|
.518
|
|
The Jays are fighting to finish over .500, but they aren’t helping themselves with a 3-7 record in their last ten games. They’ll have to do it without Troy Glaus, who, after coming up in the Signature scandal, has elected to have surgery on a nerve in his foot, which will end his season.
|
13
|
Cubs |
76-71
|
5-3
|
.518
|
|
The Cubs seem more interested in musical chairs than baseball judging by the way they’ve hopped around the standings as of late, but the schedule in front of them might guarantee a division crown: the Cardinals for three more, six versus Cincy, three against Pittsburgh, and three against last-place Florida; as a result, the playoff odds like them for 58%, third-best in the NL. You’d had to have terrible luck at every turn to screw this up.
|
14
|
Brewers |
74-72
|
2-4
|
.507
|
|
The Brewers fell out of first. Again. Tom Shearn beat them to improve to 3-0, with the Reds offensive stars highlighting the evening. The Brew Crew schedule is less forgiving than the Cubs’ from here on out, with four against Houston, three versus the Cards, and four against the Padres to close out the year. Rickie Weeks has been on fire since August 18, hitting .347/.510/.573 to bring his season line up to .236/.374/.401.
|
15
|
Athletics |
73-76
|
4-2
|
.506
|
|
Even with the Mariners’ fall from grace, the A’s are stuck in third place, 14 games back of the first-place Halos. Their run differential is zero, but injuries hurt the chances of a team many thought should finish in second back in the spring. With games left against Seattle, Cleveland, Boston, and the Angels, finishing over .500 looks to like a daunting task for the 73-76 club.
|
16
|
Diamondbacks |
83-65
|
5-2
|
.498
|
|
Brandon Webb continues to shine as he fights for his second Cy Young award, but he’ll have to do it without the glovework of Orlando Hudson, who is out for the year after surgery to repair ligament damage in his thumb. The D’backs are four games up on the Wild Card-leading Padres, so the playoffs are almost a lock at this point.
|
17
|
Mariners |
78-68
|
4-4
|
.495
|
|
That all came crashing down rather quickly, huh? The M’s lost nine in a row to close out August and start September, and have gone 5-6 since snapping the streak. Their remaining schedule is chock full of playoff hopefuls, and they are down to less than 1% in the playoff odds report. Still, this Mariners’ season has gone much better than many analysts predicted, with the M’s sitting at 78-68, although their third-order winning percentage is just .484. If they want to compete in 2008, they will need to revamp a rotation that earned
only 10.5 SNLVAR from its top five starters.
|
18
|
Twins |
72-75
|
3-4
|
.494
|
|
The big news out of the Twin Cities comes from long-time General Manager Terry Ryan, who announced he would step down, with AGM Bill Smith taking over immediately. After going so long without a 30-homer guy, the Twins now have one two straight years after Justin Morneau bashed his 30th last night versus the Tigers. Rob Neyer makes the case to deal Johan in order to win.
|
19
|
Giants |
66-81
|
3-4
|
.474
|
|
The Giants have games against a few playoff hopefuls on the rest of their schedule, so they could play the role of spoiler down the stretch. They will have to do it without Noah Lowry though, who injured himself and is now out until 2008. Lowry has struggled this year with a K/BB of 1.0, but has somehow managed to keep his ERA under 4.00; look for some regression next year.
|
20
|
Reds |
68-79
|
5-2
|
.468
|
|
It might come as a shock, but despite a .459 winning percentage, the Reds still have a 0.8% chance of winning the NL Central (although no chance at the Wild Card). With the inconsistency the teams in front of them have displayed, the Reds could conceivably make the teams in front of them nervous with a hot streak, but the chances of that are, well, less than one percent. But hey, Joey Votto is up, and he’s hit .462/.517/.846 in his first 26 at-bats.
|
21
|
Rangers |
69-78
|
4-4
|
.467
|
|
Kason Gabbard has started to come undone for Texas, with 26 strikeouts versus 23 walks to go along with five homers allowed in 40 1/3 innings pitched. David Murphy, also acquired in the Gagne deal, has done well of late, hitting .385/.429/.631 in 65 at-bats. As a team though, the Rangers have lost four straight after a slew of victories made their record look nicer.
|
22
|
Orioles |
63-83
|
3-4
|
.461
|
|
A few years ago Baltimore had the Rafael Palmeiro issues to deal with, and now there’s Jay Gibbons and his connection to Signature. Baltimore’s two most effective starters, Erik Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie, both had their seasons ended by oblique injuries, while Daniel Cabrera and Dave Trembley were both suspended. In that same story, Miguel Tejada puts his annual unhappy face on.
|
23
|
Cardinals |
69-76
|
0-8
|
.460
|
|
Rick Ankiel was linked to the HGH scandal that seems to encompass the whole world of sports. Look to the science world for answers, not the media; while they may or may not know baseball, how many sportswriters do you know with degrees in chemistry? The Cards have struggled as of late, and now will have to battle without Chris Duncan, one of their few offensive weapons.
|
24
|
Marlins |
64-83
|
4-3
|
.454
|
|
What’s there to say? The Marlins are in last place in the NL East, and the problem of drawing fans seems to have become magnified this year. On a positive note, Hanley Ramirez is really, really good (84.1 VORP), though David Wright’s defense probably makes him the most-likely NL MVP.
|
25
|
Pirates |
66-81
|
5-2
|
.439
|
|
It’s finally over-Dave Littlefield has been relieved of his duties, which sparked the heated debate over who ruined the lives of more Pirate fans, Cam Bonifay or Littlefield? Neil de Mause worked on this very subject earlier in the year, while Keith Law wrote a wonderful summary piece over at ESPN Insider, touching on the Pirates’ failure to develop young talent through the draft.
|
26
|
Royals |
63-83
|
1-6
|
.437
|
|
The Royals are 63-84, which means that they can’t lose 100 games this year. It’s disheartening when that seems like a legitimate step forward, but you have to start somewhere. They are now only half-game up on the last-place White Sox though, thanks to a 2-8 stretch. Things might be different if the Royals were in the NL Central instead of the AL, especially given the way both Bannister and Gilgameche have pitched this season. The bullpen (9.379 WXRL combined from the top four relievers) has been excellent for much of the season as well.
|
27
|
Nationals |
65-82
|
2-5
|
.430
|
|
The Nationals-and for that matter, everyone else in the majors-have avoided losing 100 games in 2007, despite the beliefs of many that they would finish in Cleveland Spiders territory this year. The Nats rotation may lack star power or even viable replacement-level talent on occasion, but it isn’t like all of the NL contenders are throwing aces out there night after night; most of them are relying on the same waiver-wire fodder that the Nats were busy scooping up all winter. It’s nice to see them outplay expectations, and here’s hoping Washington doesn’t have to wait too long for a fun team to watch.
|
28
|
Devil Rays |
61-87
|
3-5
|
.428
|
|
Tampa won’t lose 100 games this season, and they may just finish in fourth place in the AL East. These are minor accomplishments, but for once the Rays have signs of growth in their pitching staff thanks to Scott Kazmir (2.56 ERA, 11.0 K/9 post-ASB) and James Shields (3.89 ERA in 213 IP). The duo has emerged as two of the top pitchers in the AL, with more help on the way from the minors in the future. Congratulations to Carlos Pena for taking the franchise record for homers in a season; watch out for #40 before the season ends.
|
29
|
Astros |
63-84
|
1-6
|
.420
|
|
The Astros lost to the Pirates again, but at least Lance Berkman hit homer number 30 for the fifth time in his career; the 31-year-old has 254 career homers and a .300/.412/.558 line. The loss last night ruined Roy Oswalt‘s chances for his 15th win, which could lose him some Cy votes in a tight race.
|
30
|
White Sox |
63-84
|
4-3
|
.411
|
|
Kenny Williams has faith in Ozzie Guillen to help steer Chicago back into contention, as the manager inked an extension through 2012. As a ChiSox fan, you have to love Kenny Williams’s promise to avoid last offseason’s issues, although this is all just pre-planned rebuilding with a different name anyways. The White Sox can still do their part to spoil some other team’s fun, with series against the Angels and Detroit left on the schedule.
|
The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.
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