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Player Background

The Boston Red Sox signed Xander Bogaerts as a 16-year-old out of Aruba in 2009. He rose quickly through their system on the strength of his bat and his ability to stick at shortstop defensively. He didn’t really hit any road bumps during his ascent through the minor leagues, progressing from Rookie ball in 2010, reaching Low-A in 2011, Double-A in 2012, and the majors in 2013, playing 18 games with the big club. Once he reached Boston, he was there for good.

With only 50 major-league plate appearances under his belt heading into the 2014 season, he retained his rookie status and was considered a frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year Award. Instead, he experienced adversity for the first time in his career, hitting a disappointing .240/.297/.362 while providing average-at-best defense at shortstop. However, the fact that he held his own in the majors at a premium defensive position in his age-21 season strongly suggested that he could end up being an impact player at the highest level.

In 2015, Bogaerts turned that potential into actual performance, posting a .320/.355/.421 line with 81 runs, 84 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and seven home runs. He didn’t demonstrate the power or the plate discipline that he showed in the minors, but it’s hard to argue with those results from a baseball perspective or a roto perspective. But how did he do it?

Year

Ground

Ball %

Fly Ball %

Pull %

Opposite Field %

2014

38%

41%

47%

19%

2015

53%

26%

34%

32%

He hit more groundballs and less flyballs while pulling the ball less and going the other way more often. That adjustment is unconventional compared to the way other hitters who have remade themselves over the last few years have done it. Players like Brian Dozier and Daniel Murphy made concerted efforts to hit more fly balls and pull the ball more often to boost their power production. Bogaerts went the other way, both literally and figuratively. He sacrificed power to make more contact, take the ball to the opposite field and rack up more base hits. He cut his strikeout rate from 23 percent in 2014 to 15 percent in 2015, a huge improvement, while seeing his walk rate take a small step back from 6.6 percent in 2014 to 4.9 percent in 2015.

Interestingly, in 2016 Bogaerts managed to provide roughly the same level of production, but his performance had a much different shape to it than it did in 2015.

What Went Right in 2016

First, let’s take a look at Bogaerts’ standard roto lines from 2015 and 2016:

Year

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

2015

84

7

81

10

0.320

0.355

0.421

2016

115

21

89

13

0.294

0.356

0.446

More runs, more RBI, more steals and a lot more home runs with a little less batting average. And despite shedding 26 points of batting average, his OBP still ticked up by a single point thanks to an increase in his walk rate, which went from 4.9 percent in 2015 to 8.1 percent in 2016.

Was there more to the Aruban’s development in 2016 than an improvement in his selectivity at the plate? The short answer is yes. The long answer starts with a table:

Year

Ground

Ball %

Fly Ball %

Pull %

Opposite Field %

2015

53%

26%

34%

32%

2016

46%

35%

45%

24%

The Aruban shortstop once again made significant changes to his approach, reversing several of the things he did in 2015 to great effect. He hit fewer balls on the ground and more in the air while pulling the ball more frequently and going the other way less frequently. In short, he made the same changes that a lot of players did over the same time frame, opting for the power production that usually accompanies a higher fly-ball rate and a higher pull rate.

What Went Wrong in 2016

This section is going to be short—not much went wrong for the young shortstop in 2016. His strikeout rate increased from 15.4 percent in 2015 to 17.1 percent in 2016, but that seems a little nitpicky in light of the fact that his BB/K improved on the strength of his improved walk rate. And it seems a lot nitpicky since any player, manager or GM in the game would gladly, gleefully, joyously trade 1.7 percentage points of strikeout rate for three times as many homers, even in a league power context where everyone and their uncle hits 20 home runs.

Defensively, he’s still average at best at shortstop and possibly slight below average. However, he’s no butcher there and is in no danger of being moved to another position in the near term.

What to Expect in 2017

As good as the last two seasons have been for Bogaerts, there is still room for improvement since he’ll only be 24 years old in 2017. He’ll once again be an integral part of the best lineups in the league, so he should have no problem posting big numbers in runs and RBI. He has played at least 144 games in each of his three full seasons in the majors, making him as safe a bet as a roto player can be from a health standpoint.

On the heels of two great seasons with most indicators pointing towards the stars, Bogaerts won’t come cheaply in any leagues. His relative safety and potential for growth make him one of the better players to push a tick or two past your bid limit in auction leagues since you’re almost certain to get tons of stats from him, even if his earnings end up falling short of his price tag by a few bucks.

The Great Beyond

He’s going to be 24 in 2017. I know I keep saying that, but it matters. His youth combined with multiple seasons of high-end production and his premium position on the defensive spectrum make him one of the most valuable assets in keeper and dynasty leagues. He also sports a clean health history, as if he needed any more check marks on the positive side of the ledger.

He’s been a league-average shortstop defensively, maybe a little worse than average. Since defense doesn’t tend to improve with age, Bogaerts probably won’t get any better at shortstop and could start to get worse in a few years, which could result in a slide down the defensive spectrum at some point. That’s a ways off, though, since he’s perfectly competent at short now and the Red Sox don’t have any obvious replacements in their pipeline that are anywhere near the majors.

Bogaerts can really hit, plays an up-the-middle position, sports a clean health record, and is entering his age-24 season. You won’t get him at a discount in any of your leagues, but his durability and the legitimate possibility that he could get even better as he approaches his prime make him one of the best assets in roto, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues.

Thank you for reading

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