A couple of weeks ago, I looked at a few players who had horrible second halves and whether or not we should worry about their production moving forward. People tend to take half-season splits too seriously, but there are certainly signs that can show us a real change in these numbers. This week, I’ll look at the other side of the coin, taking a stab at five guys who had monstrous second halves. Not included here are guys like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto, who obviously were huge performers down the stretch, but who we all know are great hitters. Also left out are the Francisco Lindors of the world, who had little-to-no major-league experience before their hit second halves. So, are these five just flashes in the pan, or are they viable long-term options?
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Although Jackie Bradley hardly played at the major-league level in the first half, we had plenty of data proving him to be a bad major-league hitter from 2013 and 2014. He was a top prospect not too long ago, but looked totally and utterly over matched in previous attempts to hit major-league pitching. This includes putting up an abysmal .198 TAv in 2014. He looked like a completely different player late this summer, and while his hot second half was mostly a hot August, he was still much better than usual in September as well. The bad news, however, is that even during his hot streak Bradley continued to strike out at an alarmingly high rate. Instead, he relied on a power stroke that he never showed even at the peak of his prospect status. He’s going to get a shot at everyday plate appearances in 2016, which in turn will put him on fantasy radars. In deep leagues, I’d like him well enough as a late-round target. Unfortunately, most leagues will have someone intrigued enough by his former prospect status combined with his second half to take him relatively early. Let them take that risk, as there’s a fair chance he turns back into a glove-first, bad-bat outfielder next year.
- 1st: .290/.303/.452 1 HR, 2 RBI
- 2nd: .293/.365/.657 14 HR, 33 RBI
There are a lot of similarities between Gutierrez and Bradley, as both hardly played in the first half then exploded when they got on the field after the All-Star break. On top of that, both players relied heavily on a power explosion to fuel their second-half surges. There are some key differences, however, as Gutierrez has more of a track record as a successful major-league hitter, even if it came a couple of years ago. He was also very good in every month of his hot second half, rather than just one insane month like Bradley’s. Since he’s so injury prone and doesn’t have the recent prospect shine like Bradley, I suspect he’ll get less interest come draft time next year. There’s certainly less of a chance he’ll get a significant number of plate appearances due to those injury concerns, but based purely on talent, I’d much rather take a late-round flier on Gutierrez than Bradley next spring.
- 1st: .241/.321/.382 4 HR, 24 RBI
- 2nd: .273/.313/.520 12 HR, 37 RBI
Now, we get to a player who actually did play in the first half, and he struggled so badly that he was eventually sent to Triple-A to regroup. Odor was a favorite late-round target around draft time last year, and many were sorely disappointed by the early returns. However, he turned it around in a big way later in the year. Like the two guys above him on this list, he benefitted tremendously from an increase in power. However, he also cut his strikeout rate in a big way and became much more contact oriented. At just 21 years old, he’s obviously a great play for keeper and dynasty leagues, but he’s a bigger question mark in redraft leagues. He’s certainly worth owning in all leagues, of course, but his hot late-season performance may cloud people’s judgments. He can be a strong value as something around the seventh-best second baseman, but if his second half makes people more bullish, I’d pass on that. If you do end up with him, you’d be smart to pair him with a more proven late-rounder like Neil Walker or Howie Kendrick.
- 1st: .221/.305/.384 11 HR, 38 RBI
- 2nd: .343/.455/.560 11 HR, 44 RBI
Odor’s teammate signed a huge contract prior to the 2014 season, and after a disappointing first season in Texas, his first half had many concerned for his long-term future. He was taken as a bounce-back sleeper in drafts and auctions last spring, and many were disappointed by the start of Choo’s 2015. However, he looked like his old self in the second-half, placating many of the concerns that surrounded him for so long. Although an abnormally high BABIP helped his hot second-half, he was always a high-BABIP player at his best and a lower-than-expected regression here wouldn’t be too surprising. He also upped his power and his walk rate while cutting his K rate. In short, he looked a lot like the guy he was with Cleveland and Cincinnati. His platoon splits will always be worrisome, but I’ll certainly be buying on his second half and looking at him as an easy top-36 outfielder heading into 2016.
- 1st: .193/.294/.353 10 HR, 30 RBI
- 2nd: .283/.381/.522 8 HR, 20 RBI
To end this list, we have yet another Ranger (at least in the second half), which makes sense given their late-season run to the playoffs. Before he got to that point, however, he was with the Red Sox and playing horribly. The counting stats were actually better when he was with Boston, but that’s simply because he got more playing time there. He was clearly better after heading to Texas. Now, he’s recently signed with the Indians and figures to get something close to everyday plate appearances in Cleveland. That rough first half is the only time we’ve seen such a poor performance from Napoli in recent years, and I’d expect something like his old self in his new home. That means a low AVG, a decent OBP, and 20+ home-run potential. He’ll be entering his age-34 season, so there’s no reason to make a big bet on him, but as a cheap, late-round corner infield or bench piece, he could pay dividends.
Thank you for reading
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"1st: .241/.321/.382 4 HR, 24 RBI
2nd: .273/.313/.520 12 HR, 37 RBI"
Unfortunately, I play an NL-only league.