Dynasty Dynamics: Eight Pitcher Rebound Candidates

Let’s be honest. If you’re reading this column you’re probably not in the playoffs, and if you somehow are, the best advice on what to do from here on out is probably ¯_(ツ)_/¯. That’s right, it’s October 2015 and we’re still shruggy-ing. Anyway, since you’re looking towards next year, we thought we might do the same by highlighting players that you might want to target heading into the offseason. For the most part, these are well-known quantities who had down seasons, and could/should see a rebound. We attempted to vary the quality of player for the difference in league depth that our various readers encounter, but there aren’t any unknowns, to be certain.

We covered position players in our last iteration, and now we’re back with some pitching options.

Craig’s Picks

Ervin Santana, MIN: He’s no one’s idea of a frontline pitcher (outside of Minnesota, perhaps), but Big Erv provides a few things that are crucial to deep(er)-league success. First and foremost, he logs a lot of innings. He managed 196 in 2014, and that was with a late start due to contract negotiations. He’s over 100 in Minnesota and that includes a drug suspension. Just how good Santana is depends greatly on how well he keeps the ball in the park. There is a bit of a deviation with that in 2014, but it’s pretty much all BABIP-related. Pitching in Target Field should help with home run suppression—at least to around the same degree that you expected Kauffman to help back in 2013.

While Santana’s strikeout rate dropped to pre-2014 levels in Minnesota, he’s still walking under eight percent, so there shouldn’t be too much damage to your WHIP. Again, this is a mid-rotation starter type, but one who is better than his current 4.10 ERA/4.22 FIP. In fact, he might already be righting the ship, as he’s spun 43 innings with a 1.47 ERA, 44 strikeouts, and only 11 walks since August 30th.

Rick Porc hahahahhaa, no but Wade Miley, BOS, for serious:

Ben: Porcello’s been goodish! sort of. kind of.
Craig: yeah since the DL but seriously though, **** Rick Porcello
Ben: only counterpoint is that Wade Miley kind of sucks too

Craig: he does I just think he can suck less than this

Ben: that’s the dream

Ben: we should just run this

Craig: I’m in.

But for serial, you guys. Miley is like a diluted version of Ervin above, and I’ll readily admit he lacks the upside of even Rick Porcello. This is just about a guy who is better than a 4.39 ERA, and will likely have a solid team to generate at least the 11 wins he already has, if not somewhere in the 15-win range. Miley has a 3.80 FIP, and he’s whiffing around 18 percent—just under his career average. He’s also generating ground balls fewer than 50 percent of the time for the first time in three seasons. If he can push that back of the 50 percent mark, there’s a decent reason to buy into his lowered HR/FB (and while Fenway isn’t a pitcher’s park, it’s not really a dropoff compared to Chase Field). For deeper leagues he is going to be someone isn’t thrilled to have, and that’s fair, but you also shouldn’t hate him as a back-end option.

Taijuan Walker, SEA: The thing is that Taijuan Walker has everything going for him but for his actual performance. His ERA is 4.56 as of writing this and his FIP is better but still unsightly at 4.07. The positives? He’s missing bats (22.2 percent whiff rate) and not walking a ton of guys (5.7 percent walk rate), which leaves home runs. Those are a problem, as he’s allowing more than 1.3 per nine innings.

Still, he pitches in Safeco, and giving up too many home runs should be a correctable flaw for someone with Walker’s stuff and arsenal. This isn’t Marco Estrada getting by on location and guile… Walker has the stuff to dominate. Perhaps it means throwing his cutter more (8.5 percent right now) and his splitter less (hanging splitters will go a long way), or even just locating his fastball lower in the zone more often.

Cole Hamels, TEX: As stated in the intro, we’re trying to vary depth here, so while no one is dropping Cole Hamels, there could be concern about a guy entering his age-32 season experiencing a 1.3-run jump in ERA. The reality is that he’s been worse than he was in 2014, but that worse is mainly concentrated in giving up the longball, something that didn’t resolve itself in a move from Philly to Arlington. The bad news is that his current rate of giving up the gopher(ball) is more in line with his career rate. The good news though, is that a 3.72 ERA is unlikely next year. Hamels is whiffing 24 percent of batters (he’s actually up half a percentage point from 2014) and walking the same seven percent. He’s generating more ground balls, too. This is mostly to say: Cole Hamels is as good as you think he is, and better than his overall 2015 numbers say. He should continue to age well—he’s actually throwing harder now than he did a few years ago—so don’t let a small thing like an inflated ERA scare you off from relying on him as a low-end SP1 going forward.

Ben’s Picks

Julio Teheran, ATL: Teheran has been the 74th-”best” fantasy starter in the game this year, per ESPN’s Player Rater. Considering his ADP was 68th overall before the season began, it’s fair to label him as one of 2015’s most disappointing fantasy pitchers. Why will he be better in 2016? Teheran has posted a 3.20 ERA with four wins and 59 strikeouts in 70 1/3 IP since August, a span that comprises 11 starts. That includes an eight-run shellacking at the hands of the Yankees on August 30^th, and while taking that start out isn’t fair, his line is obviously even more encouraging if we get rid of that outlier. And it truly is an outlier: Teheran hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his other starts since August, and he’s allowed two or fewer runs eight times. If we broaden our scope to the entire second half, Teheran has missed more bats, allowed fewer homers and line drives and induced a much lower opponent's’ slash line compared to the season’s first three months. In essence, he’s been a lot closer to the top-15 starter we saw in 2014, and considering he’ll be just 25 next season, I’m still willing to bet his 2013-2014 self represents his real talent level. Wins may be hard to come by thanks to a poor supporting cast, but Teheran is a good bet to be a top-40 starter with a top-20 ceiling.

Martin Perez, TEX: Perez is a risky proposition, no doubt. He’s been actively bad this season after returning from Tommy John, and while his velocity and control look no worse for the wear, there’s no dancing around the way Perez has been smacked around the park. Why have interest in him, then? For a few reasons. First, go back and read that sentence about Perez’s velocity and control being back already; that’s a pretty huge deal, and we know that command is generally the last thing to come back after TJ. Next, consider that Perez’s 3.48 FIP is much better than his 4.77 ERA, and his 4.51 DRA is at least marginally better than his ERA. Finally, try to keep in mind that Perez is just 25, and while he’s not the top-of-the-rotation arm we all once thought he still has the profile of a fantasy no. 4. This is a rebound prediction based more on scouting and profile than on numbers, and if you’re uncomfortable with that, I get it. Plus, 2016 might not be the year Perez really breaks out. But if you’re looking to buy low on established MLBers and not just gamble on lottery ticket prospects, Perez will probably come pretty cheap. Even if his true talent level is as a guy who sneaks under a 4.00 ERA, that’s usable when you combine it with 150 strikeouts and decent win totals.

Gio Gonzalez, WAS: “Why isn’t Gio good,” asks “esteemed” colleague Craig as we discuss pushing this column over the finishing line. Why indeed. Gonzalez has thrown 169 2/3 innings this year, struck out 22.0 percent of batters he’s faced and has grabbed 11 wins. How is he just 85th among starters per ESPN’s player rater? First blame his 3.93 ERA, and then blame his 1.44 WHIP. The latter could be better or worse, depending on which advanced metrics you prefer (3.10 ERA, 4.30 DRA). The former is a real issue, though, as Gio’s career WHIP is 1.32 and he’s posted a higher walk rate than in 2016. The good news is Gonzalez is still missing bats, does a good job of limiting homers and figures to pitch for a decent team in 2016. People are tired of Gio since he’s never repeated his 2012, but there’s still a lot to like here. Don’t bank on him as a top-three starter, but a top-50 SP performance next season is very much within his reach.

Justin Verlander, DET: When I looked up Verlander in ESPN’s Player Rater, I was sort of shocked to find him at 59th among starters. The way the narrative has gone—somewhat justifiably, thanks to 2014 and a good portion of this season—I assumed he’d be ranked a lot lower. Yet if you look past all the “he’s not as good as he used to be” think pieces and adjust your expectations, you’ll realize that Verlander has been a perfectly reasonable fantasy asset in medium-depth leagues this year. The problem, of course, is that you probably paid for him to be more than that. That sucks if you bought high, but it’s good news for owners looking to buy low. Verlander posted a 6.62 ERA through his first six starts in 2015. Since then, he’s posted a 2.22 ERA and recorded 82 Ks in 93 1/3 IP. Verlander is 32 and has been bad for two-thirds of the past two years, and there’s no reason to sugarcoat that. But many dynasty league owners hate old pitchers, and if you’re planning on contending in 2016 and need a cheap mid-rotation with some upside, Verlander is a really enticing option. The Cy Young days are gone, but 14-plus wins, 200-plus strikeouts and an acceptable ERA are all still well within his reach.