There are a half-dozen ballgames going on this afternoon, but today's edition of Fantasy Rounders will focus on the evening slate, where there are nine games starting after 4:00 pm eastern. Similar to yesterday's tempered enthusiasm, there are few opportunities that are in glaring need of exploitation, but a finely-tuned microscope can find diamonds where others see coal.
Platoons
Temper: RHB's Cameron Maybin 1B ($3900, +47 OPS and +.013 ISO career vs. RHP) and Andrelton Simmons SS ($3400, +12 OPS and -.025 ISO vs. RHP) against RHP Chris Tillman ($6000, +36 OPS and +.037 ISO vs. RHB)
Tillman's opponent batting average and on-base percentage are nearly identical whether he's facing a left-handed batter or a right-hander in his career, with lefties having a meager three-point advantage in each category, but the power comes out in greater force when Tillman is actually carrying a theoretical the platoon advantage. No, that “vs. RHB” is not a typo, as his over-the-top slot results in one of the game's tallest release points and the the resulting lack of lateral variation on his pitches helps to fuel the reverse split. The Braves aren't exactly known for their sock from the right side of the plate and their lineup is stacked with lefties, but the platoon numbers suggest that Maybin and Simmons should provide solid bang for the DFS buck. Maybin is particularly intriguing, given his own reverse platoon split for his career and his increased efficiency on the basepaths against right-handed pitchers. Tillman has been a punching bag this season, but the reverse platoons have been even stronger in 2015 than the above stats would suggest.
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Steals
Target: Curtis Granderson OF ($3600, 9-of-11 SB this season) and Juan Lagares ($2500, 7-of-10 SB) facing RHP Tyson Ross ($10800, opponents 26-of-35 SB)
Here's your weekly Ross warning, as anytime that the right-hander toes the rubber there's the risk of multiple steal attempts, particularly with Derek Norris behind the plate. There aren't a whole lot of stolen base threats on the New York Metropolitans, as Granderson's nine steals and 11 attempts lead the team, and both he and Lagares pick their spots to up the efficiency of their opportunities. To give a dose of credit to Ross, the atrocious steal-rate of his first two months – opposing runners were 21-for-25 in his first 11 games – has been greatly improved over his last nine turns in which runners are just 5-for-10 when attempting to steal.
Recency Bias
Target: Melky Cabrera OF ($3800) versus RHP Rick Porcello ($6100)
Last 11 Games (11 starts): .429/.431/.776 with 12 XBH in 51 PA
The volatile outfielder had a brutal start to the season that bled from spring into summer, as the switch-hitter slashed a razor-thin .226/.263/.258 into his OPS low-point on June 7, a span that covered 237 plate appearances of ineptitude. The bat started to heat up with the weather and Melky has exploded since the All-Star break, swinging at everything he sees and enjoying the results on contact. He has just one walk in the 11-game span, but he has been finding gaps with an incredible nine doubles plus one triple over that same stretch. He tops off the recency bias with a pair of homers, both of which were hit in the same game, as Melky has been a key cog in many winning DFS lineups over the past week-and-a-half.
Matchups
Avoid: RHB Alexei Ramirez SS ($3300) versus RHP Porcello ($6100)
Head-to-head: .160/.160/.220 in 51 PA
Porcello strikes again, but this time we're singing his praises. The former Tiger has extended experience against long-time White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez, as with the two going head-to-head more times than all but three batters in Porcello's career. The $20 million man has owned the Cuban Missile, with just eight hits in 51 plate appearances, though his penchant for contact is evident in the zero walks and only three strikeouts over that stretch. Ramirez's sad slash of .228/.255/.312 has few managers reaching in his direction this season, but his empty line against Porcello effectively hammers the nail in the coffin.
Price
Target: RHB Xander Bogaerts SS/3B ($3400) versus LHP Jose Quintana ($8300)
Quintana has been pitching very well of late, particularly in limiting free passes with just one walk allowed in his last six turns, though his own consistency in the platoon department kept Bogaerts out of that particular section despite an OPS that's 177 points higher and an ISO that swells by .046 when the Red Sox shortstop faces a southpaw. The lack of free passes won't faze Bogaerts, whose own walk rate of 4.1-percent has fallen below Pablo Sandoval territory (the Panda has walked in 4.8 percent of his PA's this year) as the lowest mark among Boston regulars. Bogaerts value is tied to results on contact, and in that sense he has broken out this season with a .311 batting average and 21 doubles on the season.
Temper: RHP Jesse Chavez ($6100) at the Los Angeles Dodgers
Rostering Chavez is a risky play today, and one recommended for GPP tournies rather than cash games, but he presents a great opportunity to zig while others zag toward more trustworthy arms. Chavez has been on a rough ride for the past month, including his shortest outing of the year in his last start with 3.0 innings against the cross-bay Giants, but the right-hander has some performance spikes this season that could pay off huge if he hits one at such a modest price point. Two starts ago he struck out nine Twins over six shutout innings, with only four baserunners allowed, and last month Chavez had an 11-K gem against the Padres. It's rare to find that type of upside for $6100, and though his recent track record suggests that things could get dicey against the deep lineup of the Dodgers, rostering the right-hander is a play where the potential rewards outweigh the risks.
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Resources used for this article:
Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
Draft Kings player prices
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