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The Weekend Takeaways
I’m gonna give a hot take right here: I think the Nationals are a really, really good team. Their record doesn’t quite show that, and their adjusted winning percentages peg them as being even worse than their 49–41 record. But they’re without Stephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Denard Span, and Ryan Zimmerman, and they’re hangin’ in there, man! I mean, it helps that their division is trash, but first place is first place.

If you watched the Nats’ last two games this weekend, you’re probably looking at me like I just stumped for Donald Trump. After a 5–3 win in a wacky game that was suspended because the lights at Nationals Park went out, Washington’s lineup was reduced to a bunch of dudes basically swinging toothpicks against Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. The numbers from those starts: Eight innings and three hits allowed in both, with 14 strikeouts from Kershaw and 11 from Greinke.

Kershaw was straight-up wack on Saturday, and I’ll frame the start with two of his appearances against Bryce Harper, who’s the best hitter in baseball right now. Actually, I’ll do the same for Greinke’s start as well.

In Harper’s at-bat in the first inning, Kershaw started by pumping three fastballs and a curve into the top of the zone against Harper. This was a somewhat unorthodox strategy, since pitchers typically attack Harper by pounding the lower outside part of the zone, but the fastballs were at 94, 95, and 96, so the laws of physics no longer apply in this space.

Then, this:

Usually, curveballs stop breaking at some point, enough so that hitters can barrel them up, but I get a feeling with this pitch that had A.J. Ellis not caught it, it would have drilled right into the center of the Earth. Careful, Clayton; that’s how disaster movies start!

In Harper’s second at-bat, Kershaw attacked him first with a changeup, slider, and curveball, then got a swinging strike on a fastball to put two strikes on Harper. Back to the curve? Well, it worked the first time.

Guys, I think I’ve discovered Bryce Harper’s weakness: Clayton Kershaw curveballs. I assume my check is in the mail, National League front offices!

Kershaw started Harper’s third at-bat with a fastball that missed high. He went high again, this time with a fastball at the belt for a called strike. Then he got another called strike with one on the inside corner. Time for a curveball, like the last two times, right? Nope, fastball up and in, and Harper swung through it.

Man, baseball must be hard! I wouldn’t know; I just write about it. Harper later unleashed all his pent-up frustration on this Kenley Jansen pitch, so his day wasn’t a total loss.

Harper had scarcely any more luck against Greinke on Sunday, and got no leeway at all from home plate ump Bill Miller. First at-bat: four fastballs, all on the edge of the strike zone. All could have conceivably been balls, but Harper was called out on strikes.

Greinke walked Harper in the fourth, and in the seventh he worked back into a three-ball count, again scarcely sniffing the edge of the zone. He then threw ball four, or so Harper thought.

Harper went down on a slider in the dirt, and he voiced a bit of his displeasure to Miller, but not enough to get tossed. If Harper couldn’t touch Greinke, that didn’t bode well for the rest of the Nationals. They lost 5–0.

Here’s something: Greinke has now thrown 43 2/3 straight innings without allowing a run. Only Orel Hershiser and Don Drysdale have thrown more in the history or the Dodgers, and those two are also number one and two in the all-time standings in that category. Greinke’s 1.77 DRA is second in baseball, and his 1.30 ERA is in first by a marathon. Max Scherzer, who he beat on Sunday, is second at 2.09.

Scherzer had the more visually impressive stuff yesterday, though the sharpness of Greinke’s curveball can still astound. But Greinke’s command was nothing short of surgical. He spotted the ball on every possible corner and the deception with his arm speed and release point made his fastball-changeup combination lethal on its own. For Greinke to give up and break his scoreless streak, he’ll have to make a mistake, and right now, he simply isn’t doing that.

***

Honestly, the one of three the Nats got in that series is probably something they can be happy with, considering the guys they lost to. Meanwhile, the second-place Mets lost to the Cardinals on Friday and Saturday.

But wait! The Mets didn’t let Washington get any further ahead in the division, grinding out a 3–1 win in 18 innings on Sunday.

The first 12 frames of this one were scoreless, so let’s skip those. The 13th was when the fun really kicked up. After Curtis Granderson doubled off Carlos Villanueva to lead off the inning, he scored when Kevin Plawecki, Purdue’s Favorite Son (after my dad, of course), singled to right.

Jeurys Familia got but a pitch into the 13th inning until Kolten Wong turned on an inside fastball and snuck it just over the fence in right for the game-tying dinger.

In the 17th, the weirdness really got going. With Ruben Tejada on first and the pitcher’s spot up next, Carlos Martinez walked Daniel Murphy. And since it was the 17th inning, the Mets were forced to send Jacob deGrom up to pinch-hit. He’s a pitcher, in case you forgot. Martinez walked him, too.

However, that wouldn’t be the inning to sink the Cardinals, as Lucas Duda struck out to end it. St. Louis met its doom in the 18th, when consecutive singles and Martinez botching a sacrifice bunt set the table for Wilmer Flores’ sacrifice fly.

Alex Torres closed it out in the 18th to give the Mets the 3–1 win. The victory wasn’t quite Pyrrhic—though Michael Cuddyer did leave in the eighth inning with a sore knee—but the Mets just made things immensely tough on themselves, leaving 25 runners on base.

***

In his start Friday against the Rangers, Astros right-hander Collin McHugh gave up 11 hits in six innings. He also gave up one run. A start with those two totals together is extraordinarily rare.

In fact, in the games since 1914 that Baseball Reference’s Play Index tracks, McHugh’s start is only the seventh in which a pitcher has thrown six or fewer innings, given up 11 or more hits, and allowed one or fewer runs. Just once has a pitcher given up more than 11 hits with that many innings pitched and runs allowed: On July 24, 2013, Mike Leake gave up 12 hits and one run in six innings. He got a win against the Giants.

To understand how a start like that comes together, let’s take a closer look at McHugh’s. The first inning was perhaps the strangest. Rougned Odor, the second batter McHugh faced, singled to center field and was thrown out by Jake Marisnick trying to stretch the single to a double. So that’s a hit, but also an out.

Then came three singles from three not-fast runners: Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, and Mitch Moreland. If Beltre’s hit was to right, Fielder might have advanced to third. Instead, it went to left. If Moreland’s hit was to center, Fielder might have scored. Instead, it was to right. Josh Hamilton then chopped a groundout to end the inning. In the second, Elvis Andrus led off with a single, but Leonys Martin grounded in a double play.

Delino DeShields Jr. led off the third with a single. Then, with DeShields moving on the pitch, Odor flew out to Colby Rasmus in right. Rasmus threw to first for the double play.

So in three innings, McHugh allowed three hits that were erased immediately thereafter. Fielder singled after the double play, but Beltre flew out to center to end the inning.

McHugh threw an easy fourth and then allowed a one-out single to Robinson Chirinos in the fifth. DeShields followed that with another single, and Odor narrowly beat out a 4–6 fielder’s choice, giving Fielder a chance to extend the rally.

He couldn’t cash in, popping out to the catcher. In the sixth, Beltre led off with a hard grounder to shortstop Carlos Correa’s left. Correa got a glove on it but couldn’t come up with the ball to make a throw. It was scored a hit. Moreland then did this:

It appears that Rasmus’ throw hit Moreland right on the butt, deflecting the ball away from Jonathan Singleton. Either way, it was scored an error on Rasmus. Hamilton then gave a ball a ride all the way to the warning track, but Rasmus tracked it down. That turns the run from unearned to earned. McHugh proceeded to retire Andrus and Martin to end the inning and his outing.

So, after years (meaning 30 minutes or so) researching the subject and its many examples, I’ve come to this conclusion: Giving up a lot of hits and not a lot of runs requires a bit of luck, avoidance of extra-base hits—McHugh only allowed singles—and the ability to lock in during high-pressure situations. Easy!

The Astros took a 3–2 win on Friday, lost 7–6 on Saturday, and then drubbed the Rangers 10–0 on Sunday, a game in which Dallas Keuchel struck out 13. Houston is currently a game back of the Angels in the AL West and will take on the Red Sox in a series beginning on Tuesday.

Defensive Play of the Weekend

This is one of those plays you just need to stop and think about. How many of us could make that throw from Nolan Arenado’s position over to first on the fly? Okay, now how many of us could do it with enough zip on the ball to get Austin Hedges in time? Yes, he may be a catcher, but he’s far fleeter than most men his age.

A very, very select few of us can answer “Yes" to either of those questions. Now, how in the hell did Arenado do just that, but without any feet on the ground? I don’t know, man. I don’t know.

What to Watch on Monday
You know what I’m tired of? Writing about good baseball. Let’s look at some trash! Today, the Rays play the Phillies in perhaps the least-anticipated interleague matchup of all time. David Buchanan and his 7.58 ERA are scheduled to start for the Phillies, and Matt Moore, with his 7.07 ERA, is set to go for Tampa Bay. Both of these guys have been scarce this year—six games for Buchanan, three for Moore—and have been real bad when they do get the ball. Buchanan has 4.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. There’s, uh, supposed to be some sort of ratio there, I think. Moore’s a little bit better, with 5.1 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. He’s squandering that edge, though, by giving up considerably more dingers.

Now, to be fair, both of these guys have been victims of flat-out unlucky BABIPs, of .358 for Buchanan and .367 for Moore. There’s always the chance Moore could find his sorta-decent form from 2013, and that Buchanan could … uh … be tolerable? Geez, this matchup is just depressing on all fronts. But with the strange symmetry of its starters’ mediocrity, it’s kind of interesting, too. (7:05 ET)

***

I wrote about the Nats earlier, and I wrote about the Mets earler, and now I’m going to write about the Mets and Nats in tandem. This is a series that could set the course of the NL East for the rest of the season. (Pardon me for searching for the #narrative: I did major in journalism, after all.) Washington is currently two games up on the Mets in the division. The two teams are about to play three games. The Nats could either give themselves series-wide berth or lose the division lead outright. In the third-order winning percentage standings, as of Sunday, the Nationals were about four games ahead of the Mets. Unfortunately for some, and fortunately for others, Major League Baseball’s standings are based on real games. Tonight, Matt Harvey will start for the Mets, and Gio Gonzalez will go for the Nationals. It might be interesting, or it might be boring. Well, that’s baseball! (7:05 ET)

***

Woe to Kyle Schwarber, who plays on a National League club. He blitzed through the minors with just as much fury as Kris Bryant, but it was all on the strength of his bat. His catching game is considered to be a bit rough around the edges, enough for the Cubs to be playing David Ross, he of a .173 average, rather than the rookie. Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reported that Schwarber is likely to play tomorrow and most of the Cubs’ upcoming series against the Reds.

In their recent series against the Braves, which Chicago won two games to one, Schwarber was 3-for-4 with a double in the game he started Friday and then hitless in the pinch-hit appearances he got Saturday and Sunday. If there’s a knock against Schwarber so far, it’s that his hits have been mostly to the pull side. Gonzales’ article suggests that whether Schwarber plays more than the first two games against the Reds is up to the handedness of the pitcher the Reds throw, with a lefty possibly precluding Schwarber from playing time. However, his hits have mostly come off outside pitches so far, and he has yet to develop a noticeable platoon split.

If it were up to me, I’d just let him play! That’s why they pay me the big bucks. (Note: I am not currently receiving any big bucks.) (7:10 ET)

Thank you for reading

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oldbopper
7/21
It was Carlos Torres who got the win with 2 innings of relief. Alex Funny Hat was the only player left in the Mets bullpen.