Prospect Profile: Austin Meadows

Despite being a first-round pick almost two years ago, we entered the season without knowing a lot about what kind of player Austin Meadows would be as a professional. His career got off to a strong start in the Gulf Coast League in his draft year, but his first full season in 2014 was hampered significantly by a hamstring issue that cost him over 100 games. Because of this, he entered this season on the verge of his 20^th birthday and an assignment to the High-A Florida State League, but with a limited track record. I got an extended look at Meadows over the weekend, and came away impressed with the overall package.

Looks can be deceiving. No matter how much we try not to predetermine what to expect from players, a first visual of a player’s build, frame, and stature immediately begin to project expectations in our mind. Meadows is tall and lanky, listed at 6-foot-3 and with room for more weight than his currently spaced out 200 pounds. This visual immediately suggests “power hitter,” which is unfair. There are plenty of tall players with room for growth who aren’t power hitters, many of whom end up being good comps for Meadows.

Meadows has many of the prerequisite tools to hit for power. The natural size gives him a head start, and while still growing into his frame, he already has enough strength, especially in the wrists, to drive the ball. His bat speed isn’t elite, but it’s enough to run into his fair share of home runs. What limits Meadows’ power, and will ultimately help define what kind of player he becomes, are his approach and the mechanics of his swing, which work hand in hand.

Despite long limbs, Meadows attacks pitchers with a short, fluid stroke. He is direct to the baseball and there is little wasted motion in his swing, which helps make up for having only slightly above-average bat speed. He is patient at the plate, working deep counts and consistently putting together good, long at-bats. Even when he makes an out or ends a plate appearance with weak contact, he is a tough out.

As you can see from the video above, however, Meadows does not use the lower half of his body to its fullest extent. There is virtually no load and little weight transfer besides what happens naturally during the torque of the swing. This isn’t necessarily a problem. It is part of what helps Meadows stay controlled throughout his swing, manipulate the barrel throughout the zone more effectively, and make more consistent contact. What it does, however, is limit his power and his ability to drive the ball.

The approach works for Meadows, who projects to potentially hit somewhere in the .280-.290 range as a big-leaguer. It’s a plus hit tool coupled with a good eye and above-average on-base skills, which make for a potentially above-average player and an everyday outfielder. It may not be the profile that Meadows’ body suggests, but as with other similarly-built players who have a similar approach—Nick Markakis, Christian Yelich and in the prospect world, Brandon Nimmo all come to mind—it doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective offensive player. In fact, he should be a pretty good one.

The size also doesn’t preclude Meadows from being a strong defensive player, nor should it keep him from remaining in the middle of the field, at least for the next decade or so. He’s not an elite runner, but it’s a plus tool. That’s not ideal for center field, but he gets strong jumps and takes good routes, helping to maximize his speed and athleticism. He’s a strong natural outfielder, and until his body adds its natural mass as it approaches 30, he should be able to remain in center field, where his offensive profile fits best.

As you can see from my full report below, the overall profile makes for a strong all-around player. The lack of power limits him from being a middle-of-the-lineup impact type, but he embraces the leadoff profile and should excel in that role as a top-of-the-order hitter. There is still a moderate amount of risk in Meadows’ development, as he’s missed significant time with injury, has limited professional experience and is on the verge of turning 20 and in High-A ball, but the skill set is there for yet another strong addition to the Pirates lineup.

Austin Meadows

	Born: 05/03/1995 (Age: 19)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Left
	Height: 6' 3"	Weight: 200
	Primary Position: CF
	Secondary Position:

Physical/Health

Tall, thin frame, ideal for adding weight, which he will need to do; not weak, but hasn't filled out yet. High waist, long legs.

Evaluator	Jeff Moore
Report Date	04/27/2015
Dates Seen	4/24-4/25/15
Affiliate	Bradenton Marauders (High-A, Pirates)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2017	Moderate,	60	50, major-league regular	No

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	60	Pros: Fluid swing with direct path to the ball; short, compact for a tall player; quick wrists make up for lack of elite bat speed; good feel for manipulating the barrel; uses whole field; buys into leadoff profile, patient hitter, works counts, constantly puts together good at-bats even when they don't result in a hit. Cons: Doesn't use lower half, no weight transfer in swing; does not look to drive the ball, line-drive approach.
Power	40	Limited power profile, sacrifices power for contact; will run into a few home runs because of size, has strong wrists that will generate some pull-side power; approach at the plate limits power more than anything; does have good gap/doubles power and should post strong totals, but over-the-fence power is limited.
Baserunning/Speed	60	4.1 to first base; quick-twitch athlete, long strides; takes a few steps to get to full speed, but then glides fluidly.
Glove	55	Good jumps, quick first step, limited wasted movement; glides gracefully towards the ball; smooth, effortless routes; won't be an elite center fielder due to lack of elite speed, but has enough speed and athleticism to handle it in his twenties; gets the most out of his abilities in the field.
Arm	40	Below-average arm strength, enough for center field, but will limit him to left field if he has to move to a corner.

Overall

Meadows is a good, natural hitter, and that will ultimately determine his ceiling as a major leaguer. It is not, however, his only tool. The power profile is limited, though it's due primarily to his leadoff/line-drive approach at the plate. He could likely hit for slightly more power if he was willing to swing and miss more and sacrifice a few points on his batting average, but it's not his game. His patient approach at the plate constantly produces long, pitch-eating at-bats and he embraces the role. In the field, Meadows is a good enough outfielder to handle center field. His speed isn't at the elite level you'd like from a center fielder, but he makes up for it with good jumps and strong instincts. He has enough speed to handle center field and should be able to stay there until he ages out of the position, unless he puts on a significant amount of weight and loses a step. The overall profile is similar to that of Christian Yelich, with a contact-oriented approach that leads to high batting averages, strong on-base skills, and just enough power (mostly in the form of doubles) to keep pitchers honest. It's a definite big-league profile and one that should make for an everyday outfielder.