Last week, I took a look back at how my outlier predictions did for American League players in 2014. This week, I will take a look at the National League.
What you will find below is a complete list of players where my bid limit was $3 higher or lower than the average expert league price in the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars NL-only auctions. In addition, based on a reader suggestion rather than simply “grade” how well my predictions did in retrospect, I will attempt to explain why each specific bid limit was particularly aggressive or timid.
Table 1: Gianella Bullish, NL Hitters
|
“WINS” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
Name |
$ |
CBS |
LABR |
Tout |
+/- |
MG |
MG +/- |
|
|
$34 |
4 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
30 |
9 |
5 |
|
|
$30 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
12 |
21 |
3 |
|
|
$21 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
3 |
|
|
$15 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
10 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
$13 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
7 |
3 |
|
|
$9 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
9 |
4 |
|
|
“LOSSES” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
$12 |
11 |
13 |
9 |
11 |
1 |
14 |
3 |
|
|
$3 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
$3 |
1 |
1 |
8 |
3 |
-1 |
8 |
5 |
|
|
$2 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
-1 |
9 |
6 |
|
The $ earnings are the NL-only earnings using my formulas for 5×5 valuation (coming next month to Baseball Prospectus in their entirety). The “AVG” is the average salary for these players in the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars expert auctions. The “MG” column is my projected bid limit from my final pricing update in late March, and the “MG +/-“ is the difference between my bid and the average market price (not the $ earnings column).
Dee Gordon: Like most analysts early in Spring Training, I was skeptical that Gordon would win the job over Alexander Guerrero. But when it became evident later in the spring that he would, I pushed my bid up to $9. This was aggressive, but I felt that even if Gordon wound up on the Dodgers’ bench, that he could still be a nice source of speed. I didn’t expect Gordon to be the best fantasy earner in the National League, but then no one else did either. Grade B+
Ben Revere: I was extremely high on Revere coming into 2014 and nothing that happened during the spring changed this assessment. I purchased him for $15 in CBS but when Todd Zola of Mastersball nabbed him for $19 in Tout Wars, this reinforced the idea that a bid in the low $20s would be necessary to nab Revere. I am well aware of Revere’s limitations as a real life player, but figured that Revere would steal 40 bases with a solid batting average of .280-.290. Revere exceeded even my comparatively high expectations. Grade A
Marlon Byrd: My $13 bid wasn’t particularly high, but while I felt that there was some falloff coming from Byrd’s 2013 resurrection, I was anticipating that Byrd wouldn’t completely disappear into fantasy irrelevance in 2014. Just like with Revere, it turns out that even my relatively robust expectations were too modest. Grade B+
Juan Uribe: There is always a risk with players who are Uribe’s age that they will not only fail to produce but will also see an abrupt erosion of their offensive skill set that makes them entirely worthless. However, a $5 average bid for a starting third baseman on a contending team where runs and RBI opportunities would be plentiful seemed way too low. My initial bid was $11, but I lowered it figuring that I could purchase Uribe cheaper and snag a relatively nice bargain. He could have earned $20 without the injury. Grade B+
Seth Smith: The Padres outfield appeared to be a cluttered mess entering the year, but even under these circumstances, I surmised that with Smith on the “good” side of a platoon that he could easily earn $10-12. I slightly regret not pushing my bid up another dollar, but on the other hand I had to account for at least some of the risk that the crowded situation would push him to the bench. I need not have worried. A second half swoon diminished some of the impact of this pick, but I still chalk this one up as a win. Grade B-
Chris Owings: As with Gordon, the bid was pushed up late when it seemed evident that Owings and not Didi Gregorius would win the Diamondbacks shortstop job. I was higher on Owings than I was on Gordon, but did not want to overplay my hand in the event that Owings did get sent back to the minors. As it turned out, Owings was solid in the first half before an injury ended his season and sent his value slipping back down into single digits. Grade C+.
Eric Young: Gordon and Young’s bids were both moved up aggressively back in March when it seemed that most of the speed had moved to the American League. In hindsight, $14 was too aggressive for Young, particularly because he was a player I believed was at risk to lose his job due to his marginal real-life skill set. He almost earned what I paid for him, but for one dimensional fantasy players like Young, you really need profit. Grade C-
Cody Ross: Judgment calls on injured players in March are difficult. I thought that if Ross could return by July that he could put up enough home runs to be worth at least $5. I didn’t anticipate Ender Inciarte’s emergence and the lengthening of Ross’s recovery timeline. I would have been better off placing a lower bid on Ross, but in this case it merely seems like my guess on Ross’s health was worse than other guesses. Grade D.
Javier Baez: Like Gene McCaffrey of Wise Guy Baseball (who bought Baez at $8 in Tout Wars), I succumbed to the late Spring Training hype on Baez and got too aggressive with my price. Maybe Baez could have earned eight with a relatively early call up, but given that other rookies cost $1 or were not purchased at all, this was a waste of resources. In non-carryover leagues, rookies are always better as $1-2 endgame fliers if a job is not guaranteed. Grade F.
Mike Olt: As I did with Gordon, I adjusted my bid up on Olt based on the news that he was going to win the Cubs third base job. Unfortunately, despite some strong power production I lost this bet due to an awful batting average. As with Young, I am particularly hard on myself with Olt because I had a better feeling about Luis Valbuena’s earning potential even with their roles potentially reversed. As I alluded to at the end of my AL piece, the biggest error I made in 2014 was not sticking by my instincts in cases like this. Grade F.
Table 2: Gianella Bearish, NL Hitters
|
“WINS” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
Name |
$ |
CBS |
LABR |
Tout |
AVG |
+/- |
MG |
MG +/- |
|
$26 |
30 |
27 |
28 |
28 |
-3 |
25 |
-3 |
|
|
$24 |
32 |
27 |
32 |
30 |
-6 |
27 |
-3 |
|
|
$10 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
21 |
-11 |
18 |
-3 |
|
|
$10 |
26 |
20 |
22 |
23 |
-12 |
19 |
-4 |
|
|
$6 |
34 |
32 |
38 |
35 |
-29 |
32 |
-3 |
|
|
-$2 |
10 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
-10 |
5 |
-3 |
|
|
“LOSSES” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
$28 |
23 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
4 |
21 |
-3 |
|
|
$19 |
23 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
-2 |
17 |
-3 |
|
|
$18 |
15 |
22 |
17 |
18 |
0 |
15 |
-3 |
|
|
$17 |
16 |
14 |
20 |
17 |
0 |
14 |
-3 |
|
|
$14 |
8 |
13 |
5 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
-4 |
|
|
$14 |
6 |
17 |
9 |
11 |
4 |
7 |
-4 |
|
Yasiel Puig: My price wasn’t as much of a knock on Puig as much as it was a knock against an expert market that seemed way too enthusiastic about Puig’s ceiling. This was truer in draft formats—where Puig was being drafted in the second round on average—but I believed that a $28-30 price on Puig was far too robust. It turned out my $25 bid was almost spot on. Puig was very, very good, but he wasn’t the game changing player in fantasy that some thought he would be in 2014. Grade A.
Freddie Freeman: Freeman’s price involved a similar thought process to Puig’s price. I liked Freeman, but his value in 2013 was tied significantly to his RBI and batting average. I thought both of those numbers would drop in 2014, and didn’t see another top-10 NL-only performance coming from Freeman. Once again, I nailed this one compared to the market. Grade A
Martin Prado: Prado earned $21 in 2013, but I despise paying par for a hitter who doesn’t deliver significant returns in home runs or steals. The same principle that applied to Freeman applied to Prado; if the batting average eroded at all, then the RBI would go with it. When you factor in Prado’s AL value, he earned $17, but this drives home my point. While Prado recovered with the Yankees, even 2-3 bad months can torpedo a player like Prado significantly. Grade A-
Mark Trumbo: I have never liked Trumbo in fantasy. Players with high power/low batting average profiles tend to be overvalued in fantasy baseball, and Trumbo was no exception. He earned $20 in 2013 in a 34 home run/100 RBI season, and while the move from Anaheim to Arizona is a great change of venue for a hitter, unless Trumbo swatted 40-45 home runs, he was going to have a difficult time returning $25-30 in value unless the batting average improved. Trumbo’s injury made this an easy win for me, but even if he had stayed on the field all year, he was still a bad bet by the expert market. Grade A.
Joey Votto: My price on Votto is low compared to the market because Tout Wars switched to OBP this year and my bids are based on a batting average formula. I was actually very high on Votto coming into 2014 and completely missed the mark. I get a C- grade because I was slightly in front of the market, but Votto was a big loss for everyone in 2014.
Dan Uggla: I didn’t see any kind of bounce back from Uggla, and in fact predicted somewhere that there was a good chance that Tommy La Stella would have the second base job by the end of the summer. I stuck a $5 bid on Uggla in case I turned out to be wrong, but deliberately stuck a price on Uggla where I would only purchase him it the market completely dried up on him. Grade A.
Anthony Rizzo: My initial price on Rizzo was $24, but during the discussion of first base for our fantasy staff’s “tier” article last winter, everyone told me to push Rizzo’s ranking down because I was being too aggressive. Instead of sticking with my guns, I listened to the crowd and moved him down to the bid you see above. I wasn’t that far removed from the expert herd, but I should have stuck with my instincts that Rizzo was close to having a breakout year. Grade C-.
Matt Adams: I thought Adams had plenty of potential value but that his splits put a limit on his ceiling. The market disagreed to some degree, although most of this disagreement came in the form of an aggressive price in CBS. LABR and Tout nailed this one. Grade C.
Nolan Arenado: Despite Arenado’s youth and home field advantage, I was not convinced that a significant breakout was coming. The expert market disagreed. For about half a season, it seemed that this was going to be one of my worst predictions, but then Arenado cooled off significantly. I did not miss out by much on this call. Grade C-.
Khris Davis: Davis was one of those players who was difficult to predict due to an unexpected breakout in 2013 in a very limited sample size. For me, the range of expectations was a strong full season and about $25 in earnings or a year where Davis crashed and burned and was on the bench or in the minors in six weeks. I started out with a $14 bid and despite some excitement from the Tout Wars crowd I stuck to my guns. I was little off, but this was a case where I would have preferred a tidy profit (in the unlikely event I purchased Davis) than a significant loss if my fears were correct. Grade C.
Emilio Bonifacio: In many of these cases where I fared poorly, it was because I overreacted to late Spring Training news and over-adjusted my bid. Bonifacio was the opposite. I was skeptical that he would find enough time in the Cubs crowded infield to garner value and worried that Baez would be promoted sooner rather than later. Grade F.
A.J. Pollock: Pollock was another significant failure on my part. I saw a part-timer or possible platoon outfielder; I did not envision him running away with a starting job and providing such a great return prior to his injury. Grade F.
Table 3: Gianella Bullish, NL Pitchers
|
“WINS” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
Name |
$ |
CBS |
LABR |
Tout |
AVG |
+/- |
MG |
MG +/- |
|
$12 |
7 |
8 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
4 |
||
|
$13 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
3 |
|
|
$14 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
|
|
“LOSSES” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
-$2 |
2 |
1 |
-3 |
4 |
3 |
|||
|
-$2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
-6 |
6 |
3 |
|
|
$0 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
-2 |
8 |
6 |
||
|
$3 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
-1 |
7 |
3 |
|
|
$12 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
-2 |
17 |
3 |
|
Ervin Santana: I was slightly ahead of the expert market on Santana, but since CBS took a pass because Santana was a free agent it is fairer to grade myself strictly against Tout Wars. From this standpoint, this is only a slight victory. Grade C+
Dan Haren: Haren was one of my better calls. I guessed correctly that even if Haren remained homer-prone that he would keep his WHIP low and deliver a fair amount of strikeouts. Grade A-.
Wily Peralta: I wasn’t that much higher on Peralta than the market, but did not understand how a pitcher who was projected to be in the Brewers rotation all season long should cost less than $5. Grade A.
Taylor Jordan: I guessed incorrectly that Jordan—and not Tanner Roark—would be the pitcher to emerge as the Nationals fifth starter. This may have been one of my worst calls of the season. Grade F.
Travis Wood: If Jordan was “one of my worst calls of the season,” then Wood was without a doubt my worst. I did not believe that Wood would replicate 2013, but did believe that there was enough in his skill set to put up something between a 3.50 and a 4.00 ERA. In reality, I would have pushed Wood’s price even higher if the market had not been so limp on his 2014 potential. I had Wood at $8-9 entering the winter and thought he could earn in double digits again easily. Grade F.
J.J. Hoover: As I noted earlier, injury news can be tough to discern. I can’t be too hard on myself for dropping Aroldis Chapman’s price as much as I did (head injuries and recovery times are impossible to predict), but I do blame myself for simply assuming that Hoover would do the job capably while Chapman was out. I should have split the money I took from Chapman to multiple relievers in the Cincinnati bullpen. One week into the regular season, Jonathan Broxton was already in position to take the job in Chapman’s absence due in part to Hoover’s awful performance. Grade F.
Nathan Eovaldi: What amuses me about this bid is that my memory told me that the expert market was higher on Eovaldi than I was. In my mind $7 was a modest bid for a pitcher with a 3.39 ERA in 2013 and Eovaldi’s upside. Some might point to Eovaldi’s 2014 FIP and blame circumstances, but I believe I overshot based on Eovaldi’s K/9 and the limitations on his fantasy ceiling due to his less than stellar strikeout ceiling. Grade D.
Andrew Cashner: I was front and center on the Cashner bandwagon, surmising that his excellent stuff made him a prime candidate for a breakout season. I was absolutely correct on an inning by inning basis, but Cashner missed so much time that by the end of the year a profit turned into a loss. The changed pitching landscape makes injury risks even more questionable plays in fantasy baseball than they used to be since there are more pitchers available who can put up a solid $13-15 in earnings by simply staying on the field. Grade D.
Table 4: Gianella Bearish, NL Pitchers
|
“WINS” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
Name |
$ |
CBS |
LABR |
Tout |
AVG |
+/- |
MG |
MG +/- |
|
|
14 |
16 |
10 |
-10 |
|
-10 |
||
|
|
16 |
9 |
8 |
-8 |
|
-8 |
||
|
|
9 |
10 |
6 |
-6 |
|
-6 |
||
|
$9 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
-8 |
14 |
-3 |
|
|
$4 |
28 |
23 |
27 |
26 |
-22 |
23 |
-3 |
|
|
$0 |
17 |
17 |
13 |
16 |
-16 |
13 |
-3 |
|
|
-$1 |
17 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
-15 |
12 |
-3 |
|
|
“LOSSES” AGAINST THE MARKET |
||||||||
|
Aroldis Chapman |
$21 |
23 |
20 |
10 |
18 |
3 |
11 |
-7 |
|
$22 |
19 |
20 |
15 |
18 |
4 |
15 |
-3 |
|
Kris Medlen, Patrick Corbin, and Brandon Beachy all receive No Grade. All three pitchers were hurt in March and both Tout Wars and I was able to simply remove our bids. CBS and LABR did not have this advantage.
Michael Wacha: I was skeptical that a pitcher with as few major-league starts/appearances as Wacha was worth paying $16-18. My bid tempered expectations and anticipated a consolidation season for Wacha. This prediction looked awful during the first two months of the season, then was vindicated by Wacha’s subpar June and subsequent injury. A win is a win, though, and the risk of young pitchers isn’t merely due to performance but to injury as well. Grade B
Cliff Lee: The market was far too aggressive with Lee, but I had no idea that his injury would first cause a performance dip and later end his season. I “beat” the market but this was a bad call by me and everyone else. Grade D.
Mike Minor: I thought it would be a bumpy road for Minor in 2014 coming off of injury and could not believe that the market was as aggressive as it was. I should have put Minor even lower, but my price was enough of a warning to stay away that I can take credit for this call. Grade B+.
Tony Cingrani: By now, it is well documented how much every fantasy writer on the Baseball Prospectus staff loathed Cingrani, but to repeat the thought process here it seemed highly unlikely that a one-pitch pitcher who lived and died off of deception would fare well during his second trip through the league. This call seemed obvious to me in March, and I could not believe experts were willing to pay Cingrani $14 or $17 given all of the inherent risks. Grade A.
Aroldis Chapman: As I mentioned above under Hoover, I moved my bid down significantly for Chapman and lost. He came back quickly and was excellent. I am not as hard on myself about Chapman as I am about Hoover, though. In a non-keeper format, I stand by my belief that risking significant coin on a player with a head injury is a bad strategy. Grade C-.
Cole Hamels: On the other hand, I can easily blame myself for overreacting to the early injury news on Hamels. Tout Wars and I both had a bad feeling about what might happen to Hamels and downgraded him far too much. Given how much I have liked Hamels in the past, I should have been a little less risk averse. Grade F
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