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The main prize of the July 31 trading deadline may be Cliff Lee of the Seattle Mariners—as we saw last year with the Philadelphia Phillies, the left-hander can dramatically alter a pennant race. So, where's he going to end up? That we don't know (yet), but we can look at the best fits—and which organizations have the minor-league talent to entice the Mariners into a deal.

The New York Yankees might line up best as a trade partner, but would they pull the trigger and include catcher Jesus Montero? With Joe Mauer signed long-term, the Minnesota Twins have a front-line catching prospect available.

Let's look at the potential bidders in alphabetical order and what they could offer to the Mariners—as well as Seattle's most pressing needs.

What the Mariners need
Power Bats: With only 53 home runs as a team going into Tuesday's action, the Mariners are dead last in home runs, and it's not even close. Further complicating matters is a lack of power down on the farm. The Mariners are looking for mashers, and preferably ones that are close to the big leagues.
Starting Pitching: Lee's departure will create an opening in the rotation, possibly for fast-rising power arm Michael Pineda, who has been nothing short of outstanding in three Triple-A starts. After him, the prospect crop among pitching is thin.
High-Ceiling Prospects: Any time a team has the best player on the market, they're looking for a top prospect back in the package, regardless of position.
Catching: Rob Johnson and Adam Moore are not the answer, nor is anyone down on the farm.

Suitor No. 1: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds thought they would have the boppers going into the year, but first baseman Yonder Alonso and third baseman (at least in name) Juan Francisco have both flamed out a bit at Triple-A, and they just haven't done enough to headline a deal for Lee. The team is rich in pitching, and Lee would create a surplus of starters that might allow the Reds to send over a big league-ready arm in return. They lack high-ceiling players, but suddenly could be a player on the catcher front thanks to the breakout season of Devin Mesoraco. The 2007 first-round pick had been a massive disappointment until this year, when he reached Double-A while slugging nearly .600 with 17 home runs in 281 at-bats. The Reds took Yasmani Grandal in the draft, so they have a catcher of the future; if Seattle believes in Mesoraco's first half, he could help the cause by making up for other match-up weaknesses.

Suitor No. 2: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are considered a long shot for Lee in the first place, and the state of their system won't make things any easier. Most of their power sources at the upper levels, like Jeff Larish and Ryan Strieby, are more up-and-down players than anything else, although Wilkin Ramirez and his 18 home runs could be interesting for a team that still believes in the tools. Ramirez would not be nearly enough to get a Lee deal done, though. Because the system is so weak, almost any blockbuster deal would likely need to include 2009 first-round pick Jacob Turner, whose value is down a bit due to a year that has included injuries and inconsistency. He's the only super-high ceiling prospect in the system, As for catching? Forget about it.

Suitor No. 3: New York Mets
The Mets are considered very real players in the Lee market, but to get a deal done would require creativity. They don't have power prospects, although Fernando Martinez could still have trade value if he ever stays healthy. Outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis is having a semi-breakout year (.286/.331/.505) at Double-A Binghamton, and could have value—but he ultimately would just be an extra player in a Lee deal. The Mets will almost be forced to include their top hitting prospect, Wilmer Flores, in a big deal, and with a number of arms having poor seasons, Jenrry Mejia might need to be in the mix as well. Josh Thole is a big league-ready catcher. Even with a low ceiling, he would still be an upgrade for Seattle.

Suitor No. 4: Minnesota Twins
They might be a slight favorite to land Lee. They might be willing to part with 2008 first-round pick Aaron Hicks, a center fielder with raw power, plenty of speed and one of the best arms around. He's scuffled a bit offensively, but his approach is sound, and his athleticism is jaw-dropping. With Mauer signed long-term, Triple-A catcher Wilson Ramos is an outstanding trade chip and a perfect fit for the Mariners—while solid but unspectacular arms like Jeff Manship or Liam Hendriks could help put the Twins over the top.

Suitor No. 5: New York Yankees
The Yankees might be the best aligned with the Mariners, but the question remains as to whether they're willing to pull the trigger. Montero is a perfect fit for Seattle—and has no fit in New York right now or for the foreseeable future—but numerous reports indicate that the Yankees still see him as untouchable. Beyond Montero, the Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects who are about to get blocked, with a resurgent Andrew Brackman joining finesse arm deluxe Hector Noesi at Double-A, and righty Graham Stoneburner getting a lot of attention from scouts during the first half of the season. If you can stomach the risk, the Yankees have a number of low-level, yet high-ceiling, players who have yet to max out their trade value, and while Austin Romine is a top-flight catching prospect, the Yankees are also going to be leery about dealing him, considering the age of Jorge Posada. If the Yankees were a more desperate team, a deal could get done easily, but the team as it exists now is more than good enough to reach October.

Suitor No. 6: Philadelphia Phillies
Could the Phillies really end up re-acquiring Lee after trading him away last winter for a three-prospect package that has offered more injuries and disappointment than anything else in 2010? Untouchable outfielder Domonic Brown is arguably the only player of note at the upper levels, but the Phillies' talent-rich teams in A-ball could provide a quality-over-quantity package. Currently sidelined with arm problems, power righty Jared Cosart could still generate interest, while his Low-A battery mate Sebastian Valle is the rare catching prospect with offensive upside. Beyond that pair, burning center fielder Anthony Gose could interest Seattle, although the Mariners would likely ask for the biggest breakout player in the Phillies system this year in 18-year-old first baseman Jonathan Singleton, who has been the talk of the South Atlantic League with a line of .347/.435/.613.

Suitor No. 7: Tampa Bay Rays
While the rumors revolving around a Rays deal involving B.J. Upton are understandable, as he's flashed superstar potential that's rarely been seen for the last two years, his effort (or lack thereof) has been an issue. The Rays would like to make room for their top position prospect in Triple-A outfielder Desmond Jennings, but acquiring Lee further blocks one of the top pitching prospects in the game in righty Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson could be the majority of what Seattle is looking for in return for Lee, and Tampa Bay could think about dealing big-leaguer Wade Davis as well due to their surplus of pitching. They don't have much in the system when it comes to power hitters, but they have more high-upside arms at the lower levels that could intrigue Seattle, including lefty Matt Moore and right-hander Alex Colome.

Suitor No. 8: Texas Rangers
The Rangers line up for a trade with Seattle extremely well if Texas has the ability to make a deal due to their financial considerations, and if the Mariners are willing to trade within their division. Corner infielder Chris Davis is hitting .349/.397/.542 at Triple-A Oklahoma, and while he's struggled in the big leagues twice, his bat could be the long-term solution to Seattle's first base issue. Seattle would almost certainly ask for Martin Perez, one of, if not the top, left-handed pitching prospect in the game, and Texas is a pitching-rich system that could also dangle top lower-level arms like righties Wilmer Font and Robbie Erlin to help sweeten the pot.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

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ScottBehson
7/07
So, KG, who do you think gets him? This article is very interesting, but has no conclusion...
kgoldstein
7/07
I don't have one. I'm not going to force an opinion I don't have. I'm just going with scenarios here more than anything else, as we're just not sure who are willing to pay the necessary price.
PhillyFriar
7/07
So... you're saying Gillies, Aumont and Ramirez wouldn't get it done for the Phillies?
kgoldstein
7/07
C'mon, I was waiting for this one. Too easy!
PhillyFriar
7/08
Sorry, couldn't help myself.
Oleoay
7/08
But first the Phillies need to fail in their attempt to get Halladay...
davidpom50
7/07
What about the Dodgers? There's no doubt that they need starting pitching help, but do they have the pieces? Or are we just assuming they won't be adding payroll?
kgoldstein
7/07
We're assuming nothing, just that there's no reason to think that they are involved in talks as of right now.
georgeforeman03
7/07
Speaking of trading pitching, would it make sense for the Dodgers to trade away Matt Kemp to acquire a young pitcher they can hold onto for a while like Jair Jurrjens? What kind of minor leaguers would need to be added to make this deal happen?
kringent
7/07
Can I be in your fantasy league?
Scott44
7/07
Does Gary Sanchez change that though process at all? Seems like Romine and Sanchez provide a substantial amount of depth at catching in the system.
thesonofhob
7/07
Romine could theoretically be ready by mid-2011, if not 2012. Sanchez I believe is only 17 and in Rookie ball. He's 3 years away at best, and much more likely 4. Looking at Posada's age and health, the Yanks need to desperately keep Romine as the heir apparent, even if he eventually leads way to Sanchez in say 2015.
mymrbig
7/07
Surprised you are so low on Adam Moore. Has much changed over the last few months? Before the season you said he "projects as an everyday major-league catcher with few weaknesses," was "likely a finished product," and that "He'll be a good, but he won't be a great everyday big-league catcher."

Consider me a little bummed if his struggles so far are more than just an example of a guy struggling with his initial MLB exposure, and rather a case where scouting reports on him have gone south.
ramjam36
7/07
Great Article Kevin. As much as I would love to see Lee take the hill for Texas, I just threw up in my mouth a little think about a deal like Perez, Davis, Engel Beltre, and Font or Erlin...
WaldoInSC
7/08
Why would Seattle balk at trading within their division?

If they're pawning off Lee, they've jettisoned this season, so they don't care if Texas improves vis-a-vis Anaheim or Oakland. Lee is a free agent at season's end, so unless he re-signs with the trading partner, that team is diminished next year and in the future while Seattle has three or four of their prospects.

It seems to me, the M's should be courting an AL West suitor.
bccurls
7/08
What about BJ Upton for Dan Haren?
Oleoay
7/08
Can I be in your fantasy league?
hyprvypr
7/08
July 8th, 2010, I'm calling it:

Cliff Lee to Texas for Davis and Beltre. The M's need ready now or ready soon bats and Texas has two solid+ ones. Davis should eventually settle into some kind of a Russell Branyan type of bat(0.800 ops with 200 k's) and Beltre looks a lot like a slightly watered-down left-handed Mike Cameron. Texas gets it's 'ace' to run out there for the playoffs and doesn't move any critical pieces to do so.

I think both sides win.
hyprvypr
7/10
Not too far off, though I was a bit surprised that Texas let Smoak go. If I remember right though KG had Chris Davis rated a notch above Smoak in his 'under 25' list for Texas. Maybe the Rangers are big subscribers to BP!

Either way, I think both sides win. Clearly the M's need some offense(and a first-sacker BAD) and they got a great young hitter and two decent prospect types. The swap of Lowe is odd though as he's out for the year(doesn't help Texas...) and he was one of the better relievers the M's ran out there the last few years.

For the Rangers it's a no-brainer, especially if they feel Davis can turn into Russell Branyan with more power(That's HARD TO DO by the way, Branyan still crushes with the best).

They get their ace and don't move anything critical to do so. As an M's fan, I'll wish them the best(and hope they shred the East) until 2012.